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Friday, 6 September 2019

The British Road to Dirty War - a cogent warning

I am struck by the prescience of a considered piece by two British academics for the Bruges Group, which we featured when it first appeared back in mid-January, over eight months ago. 'The British Road to Dirty War' by Betz and Smith has been right on every count so far in detailing the process and the consequences of the establishment Remainers blocking the people's democratic choice to Brexit. I urge you to read it again in full. They say
The system works because everyone behaves by the rules. On either side of the bargain—the governed and the government—mutual obligations are observed in service of the common interest, which is the stable continuance of a non-tyrannical political order. Here we come to the disquieting part of the continuing Remain campaign, a campaign that seemingly supersedes party loyalty, not to mention national loyalty, which is its willingness to throw away the rulebook. Only a brazenly confidant, or foolishly out-of-touch, political class would chance this. The bet on the future is doubled.

The object of all these machinations has been to corral the British population into a Hobson's choice between Brexit-In-Name-Only and no-Brexit. It is no secret now. The plotters, finally, so close to the bell calling time on Britain's membership of the EU with a deal or without one, have declared it openly that they will not permit to occur what is the current legally mandated outcome of events. They will instead tie the government in knots, prevent its preparations for No Deal Brexit, and if necessary, crash it.
They think they can get away with it, the authors write, because they think we will lump it; that they can cancel the biggest democratic mandate in British history and we will all just shrug and get on with letting the corrupt and anti-democratic establishment continue to rule.
Those behind the plan to thwart Brexit by altering the standing orders of the House of Commons on the fly imagine this as a temporary alteration to the established mechanisms of power, which will return to normal after Brexit. That is to say, when the rules serve their ends, they are inviolably sacrosanct; but when they do not, they are perfectly mutable administrative procedures. 'This is not a wholesale reordering of the British constitution', averred one of the plan's prime movers. 'It would be a one-off surgical strike and afterwards things would go back to normal'. Such thinking reflects an astonishing degree of mental closure, an astonishing degree of hubristic contempt, or an astonishingly dangerous wager—anyway it is simply astonishing.
The two academics are amongst the nation's foremost experts in War Studies. They know of that whereof they write. Their final warning is chilling (my emphasis)
But we are expert on these matters. We have for decades studied why things fall apart, how a stable, essentially self-policing, productive society can turn into an ungovernable tumult roiling with rage. We know that this happens at first very slowly, a creep-creep-creeping to the limit; and then very fast indeed after the limit has been passed. We also know that no amount of free beer and pizza parties will swiftly return a society deranged by the shattering of the social contract by its own elite back to normality.

The Hattersleys of this world are deeply complacent. They are the new Bourbons who have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. The threat of violence is not absent in the British polity. It is there, lying dormant. From time to time, it even makes an occasional appearance. A hollowed out and increasingly discredited set of political institutions is all it can take to set the flames alight. This is the British road to dirty war. The political classes are sowing the wind. They shall reap the whirlwind.
We must hope and pray that Speaker Bercow, the deep State actors behind the plot to thwart democracy, the credulous and gullible dags and fools of politicians and broadcasters who support them and the simple idiots who think it will work will all pull back from the brink.

If democracy is denied, and if Betz and Smith are right in their predictions, I weep for my nation.


Anonymous said...

Have we got a clown or a genius in No. 10; is he working to get us out or simply playing the part to make us believe so? So far, it looks like the clown....

Stephen J said...

Part of the journey that you describe above is the drawing back of the parties into "sides".

The problem is that leavers do not know which side Boris is on, he has never made this clear and his acts have not demonstrated clearly that he has a view, other than a desire to stay in power.

As to the slide into war, I remember watching it as it was televised in Serbia and the some other parts of the former Yugoslavia. Normal life, in days, suddenly looks dangerous.

JPM said...

About what is all the snarling and yapping this morning then? Oh, it's the same old thing, so I might as well repeat myself too.

Farage’s ukip in 2014 had no interest at all in “the will of the people”. “Parliament Is Supreme” proclaimed their manifesto, and on that basis they would, with a Commons majority, simply repeal the European Communities Act. There would be no referendum, and to blazes with whatever the popular opinion might be.

Do any of you for one moment understand "double standards"?

DeeDee99 said...

17.4 million voted for Brexit and are having it clearly demonstrated by the pro-EU Establishment that their votes are worthless. This country is a Democracy-in-name-only ..... a SHAMOCRACY.

They are determined to keep us in the EU until the new Federalising Treaty is forced on the Eurozone nations and we will then be in the planned Outer Tier as an Associate Member along with the other nations which refuse to join the Euro and surrender their Sovereignty entirely. That was Cameron's plan and is exactly what the Barnier/Robbins Surrender Treaty is intended to deliver, by keeping us aligned in all the key areas which will apply to Associate Members of the EU.

Boris is prepared to go along with this. Farage isn't, which is why he has my vote. Not that my vote is worth anything.

Smoking Scot said...

We have seen how this is\has been dealt with in Turkey, Venezuela, Egypt, various in Africa and currently in France.

It will all depend on our enforcers on the ground, so the police and if necessary the military (all three army, navy, air - worst case).

With the Yellow Vests and in HK, some police do sympathise with the protesters, but quiet words only work in the beginning. It's got to do with the herd mentality and there rationality goes out the window.

They must protect property and home owners as well as business owners, otherwise they'll form their own defence groups - as happened in Cairo. And they don't always disband after the threat has gone.

The academics' work is in the public domain - as are the means to mitigate against them. So any real threat will be policed (as they did with the Farage march) from the get go. And if it escalates it'll be put down with overwhelming force.

The only real threat is spontaneous, right across the nation. That they can't respond to at the time, though they'll film the lot and payback will follow in due course.

But that's not likely to happen; Scotland will stay docile, meaning that it'll be an English thing if it happens.

However Raedwald it is vital you grasp that the political class really do not give flying fart adout being liked. Respected or feared will do just as well.

Bouteflika is a perfect case study in its own right as is their election of Junker's replacement.


Scrobs. said...

Our MP is Greg Clark, who is now homeless as a Conservative Member. 

He wanted some sort of a deal, and this was despite Tunbridge Wells voters being remainers in the referendum.

But, Tunbridge Wells also has a local running battle about the Conservative majority wanting to spend £120m on a new civic centre and theatre, and many others don't agree, as it's a total waste of tax-payer's money, so they've formed an Alliance Party to work against the proposals and get them dropped.  (Have you heard of this sort of thing happening before...)?

We now have a ready-made microcosm of factions all claiming 'democracy first', but getting nowhere! Voters are becoming galvanised in the 'debate' in the Borough, but the positions are defined and being defended with louder voices, more insults, fewer stand-downs, and a general distaste for the pursuance of a rational outcome.

But, with these signals coming from the chamber in the Town Hall, it may well be that 'Mr and Mrs Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells' may well decide to vote for a TBP candidate, and there's a good chance that that person may well get in! The state of voters will undoubtedly become more exuberant as more obfuscation and misinformation is bandied about, but the situation is no different to that infesting Parliament now.

Dave_G said...

I've always followed gut instinct as to how events may play out and, so far, my gut has been rather accurate.

That I now have a sense of wanting to act violently towards those that seek to strip us of our democracy speaks volumes for the accuracy of the report cited by Raed. My thoughts go against my principles as I have never raised a hand to anyone in my entire life yet the concept of freedom and democracy seems to be as stong as genetic influence in how one leads ones life.

The current political log-jamb will now be followed by a media change-of-direction, aimed at TBP on a party and personal basis to remove them as the last potential threat to the plans to keep us in the EU.

Prepare for 'revelations' - scandal and intrigue etc.

Remainers need only ask themselves - "if the UK wasn't already part of the EU would 'you', given a vote, vote to join under the current status or in light of the proposed future path of the EU?"

Answer honestly. Then explain why you are so adamant we remain.

Basing your answer on predictions (computer generated, natch) of imminent economic/social disaster is sheer folly. I've never seen any computer-predcition that hasn't been manipulated to get the result they want from it - rather similar to polling isn't it?

JPM said...

The twenty-one expelled members of the Tory party just happen to represent the most experienced and learned in the party, as well as the most moral and principled, not that the bar is very high amongst that particular group.

They have big problems.

RAC Esq. said...

There is change afoot that the euroturds have no control over. (Sorry for the long copy/paste but it was either that or a link.)

" Reuters is reporting on a significant drop in German industrial orders, and they specifically point to diminished orders from the U.K (small part) and China (big part) as the cause. However, the analysis stops at the part where China’s lack of industrial orders is the leading contribution to retraction in the German export sector.

What the financial analysis does not approach (ie. the third rail of multinational corporate admission that must never be outlined), is the reason why Chinese orders for German industrial goods have dropped.

The problem for China, and ultimately for Germany, is that Trump’s trade reset has stopped a big amount of U.S. wealth from arriving in Beijing. Simultaneously, Beijing is countering Trump’s tariffs by devaluing their currency. The rebound economic impact is doubled. China has: (1) less income; and (2) less value within their own currency.

Where does this dynamic show up?…. Anytime China is going to buy something. "

Dave_G said...

@JPM - the problem is extensive.

Did you watch Emily Thornbury explain herself nto a corner on Labour policy and result? Or have you heard the Lib Dem leader describe how, if a new referendum still voted leave she'd ignore the result?

This is what passes for democracy in the UK today - a complete rejection of a legitimate vote either by sheer stupidity/ignorance (Thornbury) or outright claims per Swinson.

How can a political party sanction leadership/membership that states - in-your-face - that they are anti-democratic? What are we supposed to take from that?

If this is what our political leadership is touting then we have no recourse but to ignore ANYTHING they legislate for on the same basis that they do - basically "do what you bloody well want and ignore the rules".

The rule of law in this country is threatened like never before and their example exemplifies this as nothing else can.

Is this what remainers want?

DiscoveredJoys said...


"The twenty-one expelled members of the Tory party just happen to represent..." those with the most self interest in maintaining the status quo against the will of the public as expressed in the Referendum, the General Election, fellow MPs voting to support Article 50, the number of anti-EU MEPs selected in the recent European Elections? Those MPs?

The big problem is a populace generally (but not exclusively) inclined towards Leave, and a Parliament generally (but not exclusively) inclined towards Remain. Until the populace or the politicians are back in step there is a risk that the polarisation will spiral out of control. That risk is getting greater.

Stephen J said...

You are the most frightful prick JPM.

The twenty one expelled members represent the tip of the iceberg, there are many more.

Strangely enough they all stood with their blue rosettes, swearing to uphold the referendum result. Then immediately started working to stop it.

That is not a sign of wisdom, it is a sign of self serving treachery.

Of course there is room for dissent in any political party, but this act of vandalism by your learned friends is not that.

Sackerson said...

@JPM 07:50 - I should be less unqualified in my praise for the Tory rebels. Leaving aside what some of them in their long experience have done to serve corporations against the interests of the common citizen, I don't think anybody could justify the former Chancellor Philip Hammond deliberately blocking contingency preparation and I think it's sufficiently cuplable to merit consideration of impeachment or some other legal action. If we had had detailed no-deal plans in place during his time in office we should have had more time and more flexibility on the EU's part to conclude Article 50 negotiations.

Sackerson said...

P.S. Sorry, forgot to add link:

Mark said...

I think there is no better illustration of these attitudes than our tame village idiot troll in its various guises.

Anonymous said...

Playing fast and loose with the social contract bending the rules, eschewing all right minded tradition in its conventions, treating a national plebiscite result way too lightly, greatly dimming all free speech and enacting stupid laws which seem very much like dhimmi practice.

The greatest hubris imagined on behalf of 'our betters' is perhaps, to very mistakenly believe that they can contain the inevitable push back, the plodettes barely have control - now and indeed in some parts of 'Britain' they fear to tread.

The whirlwind, they bring down upon themselves.

Liberista said...

Sir, i again do not share your views.
people will do nothing. and even if some of them will do something, the central state will just sit and wait for people to get tired, bored, or beaten into submission by the cops and/or the parasites.

and i honestly do not see the CIA organizing and financing a revolution in the UK

british people have allowed the central state to completely disarm them, or install surveillance cameras everywhere, or steal their childred for their dirty state sponsored human trafficking or worse, and done nothing whatsoever about it.

after all, it was a slim majority, and it will be good to still be able to fly to tenerife or valencia where booze is cheap.

it is still a long way before enough people will have nothing else to lose, and will start fighting.

it is still possible that brexit will be delivered, but i wouldnt bet any money on it.

Anonymous said...

"i honestly do not see the CIA organizing and financing a revolution in the UK "

Why not, they've just barely failed with coup in the USA.

JPM said...

But it's the utter hypocrisy of the Leave figures which disgusts.

Farage made clear in 2014 that he was not in the least interested in "the will of the people" because he thought that it likely was to remain, but he was determined to use the supremacy of Parliament, if he could, to achieve exit against what he then understood that will to be.

Wasn't he?

His sycophants would gladly do that and anything else again too, if it advanced their cynical aims one iota. You know that you would, don't you?

So cut all the pious baloney about "democracy", eh?

You just want power for your mob, by literally ANY means, don't you?

jas said...

low trust society + increased immigration + loss of confidence in money system (i.e. loss of value in currency, quantitative easing, corruption in banking) = much more than a disaster...i would say societal collapse

Smoking Scot said...

Just discovered that if I look at the comments separate from the post a rather splendid thing happens.

On a tablet, press the handle being used, so liberista for example and the entire comment vanishes from sight!

Now in the case of the Italian word for female it would appear the person claims ownership of an abandoned blog.

Why someone might want to do that leaves me befuddled, but nothing unusual about that.

Of course the same technique applies to all comments and once those designed specifically to be inflammatory are clicked out, the whole section becomes far more constructive.

Just passing on.

Liberista said...

liberista m (plural liberisti) liberista f (plural liberiste)
An advocate of laissez-fair.

the blog was abandoned because i am not going to donate any of my time to Alphabet inc.

Mark said...


"Farage’s ukip in 2014 had no interest at all in “the will of the people”. “Parliament Is Supreme” proclaimed their manifesto, and on that basis they would, with a Commons majority, simply repeal the European Communities Act. There would be no referendum, and to blazes with whatever the popular opinion might be"

Had UKIP won an actual commons majority in an election (in case you're not aware, this involves people voting. Bit like a referendum I suppose, except that the result can't be dismissed as "advisory") and fulfilled a manifesto pledge, why would that be a problem?

Yes, simply repealing that particular ACT OF PARLIAMENT (you know, no parliament can bind its successors and all that) would lead to all sort of practical issues, but how would it have been unconstitutional, illegal or whatever else you are baldly stating it will be.

Do you understand ANYTHING?

If only you were just a frightful prick!

Dave_G said...

@JPM - would you countenance the UK joining the EU today if we weren't already a member country? If so, what would your argument be for such a decision?

If you can't justify the UK joining 'today' why on earth should we remain a member of something you would find unacceptable under any other conditions? Especially since those 'conditions' are getting ever more onerous?

JPM said...

Had ukip got a majority in the Commons, then it would have been perfectly lawful for them to take the UK out of the European Union with no referendum, or even if a referendum had said REMAIN, since it would merely have been advisory.

Equally, it is perfectly lawful for today's Parliament to agree whatever terms it might choose for future relations with the European Union, or even to cancel exit altogether.

As Farage correctly said in 2014 "Parliament Is SUPREME". Nor can it be bound by its predecessors.

There's the hypocrisy, and it stinks.

Anonymous said...

JPM said @ 10:22

'So cut all the pious baloney about "democracy", eh?'

United Kingdom European Union membership referendum result:

Leave the European Union 17,410,742

Remain a member of the European Union 16,141,241


Anonymous said...

Only a catastophe, the one guaranteed coming down the line. Foundationless, when rainbow bricked 'nirvana' inevitably crumbles, the zero goes tits up and the EU falls asunder, the financial and social chaos unleashed will rage in tsunami effect across the whole world, America will be safest, EUrope the least protected from the beast and scavenger rife.

Only then, will genewation numpty, those feeble doylums, the crying bairns have very ungently, the mucus wiped out of their eyes and seeing the unpleasant reality: for the first time. In the realization that for all their wailing and bawling about inekwalitee and food banks and the gween agenda, waycism and diversity it's not fair for the wimin. As their ethnic chums turn on the weaklings.
When food becomes a scarcity not a restaurant choice with wine. When the streets are violence writ and a secure, dry home is a distant memory. Only then might some of the genewation numpty come to their senses or maybe not and or pushing up daisies.
But for Heavens sakes it will at least still their dribbling nonsense stauch the incontinent mouths and quiet empty vessel echoes.

Poj said...

@JPM UKIP's 2015 manifesto clearly states they would hold an In/Out referendum, and in the event of a vote to leave would repeal the EC Act 1972 immediately rather than invoke Article 50. Pretty democratic if you ask me.

JPM said...

That does not change what Farage said in 2014 about Parliament's supremacy. A referendum was only offered in 2015 to compete with Cameron's Poj.

Governments have been elected with as little as 25% of the vote. That was what ukip hoped in 2014, and on that basis, using Parliament's sovereignty ALONE, they would have taken the UK out of the European Union.

And you would have cheered.

So. Suck. It. Up. Hypocrites.

Dave_G said...

... and some numpty said th Earth was the cetre of the universe at one point in time.

Still convinced?

Anonymous said...

JPM said @ 13:40

'So. Suck. It. Up. Hypocrites.'

United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum result:

Yes: 17,378,581

No: 8,470,073


Sackerson said...

I think I'm correct in saying that Edward Heath took the UK into the EEC in 1972 using the royal prerogative and only secured the agreement of Parliament afterwards.

All sides prattle about democracy yet even now the PM and Privy Council can bypass Parliament, declare a war and get us killed. AJP Taylor tells us that the Council Meeting that began the First World War was comprised of only the King, two court officials and Lord Beauchamp.

I suggest we widen this debate to include consideration of the prerogative powers, and how best to limit them.

Jock Ular said...

High Commissioner for Guyana (GDP 4,500 per capita) at the Aberdeen oil conference - "We will make mistakes, but none of them of the magnitude of Brexit".

Dave_G said...

Brexit wasn't the mistake - the mistake was in allowing the EEC (Common Market) to morph into something the people were never told about nor given the opportunity to object to.

Deceit - from day 1

Anonymous said...

High Commissioner for Guyana (GDP 4,500 per capita) at the Aberdeen oil conference - "We will make mistakes, but none of them of the magnitude of Brexit".

Ah well if the High Commissioner for Guyana says Brexit is a mistake, we'd better stop it now.


Sackerson said...

@Dave_G 14:33 - the EEC was part of the US strategy to "contain" Stalin's Communist expansion, from the beginning.

It seems George Kennan also thought a European union would need the UK's involvement to make it strong enough to work as a bulwark against Russia.

The bit I still haven't found is exactly why Macmillan and Heath worked for us to join. I suspect - and after all this time, are there any official documents released yet to confirm? - it's not just Kennan but they also hoped membership would help corral English socialism and the trades unions.

Can anyone here help out with evidence?

Anonymous said...

JPM,One consequence of the anarchy to come is that you will get yours. You cant be as arrogant and dickish as you are without offending someone in real life, who will take the opportunity to stick one on you.

Anonymous said...

"High Commissioner for Guyana (GDP 4,500 per capita) at the Aberdeen oil conference - "We will make mistakes, but none of them of the magnitude of Brexit"."

No doubt he also wants Guyana to return to the British Empire, and the name "British Guiana" restored.

Countries want independence for good reasons. Even when the results are bad, as in Zimbabwe, nobody wants to abandon their independence. Nor do Taiwan or Japan want to be parts of China.

Don Cox

Anonymous said...

looks like the Tory party has fucked us again.

RAC Esq. said...

Guyana is that where Guano comes from ?
I did go to school once but we didn't do maps that day.

RAC Esq. said...

@ anonymous 16:52
It's turn and turn about.
If the Cons fail us, then by the time the electorate has finished with them they'll be gaping like a rusty bucket !

Anonymous said...

FYI, Chile was the S.A. Guano deposit centre thanks to the enormous upwelling of the Pacific conveyor, cold water (Humboldt current) making desert on land but great for fish and sea birds and consequently sea bird droppings.
I think that now, the deposits have largely indeed long been worked out, hence, deep mining evaporites ie polyhalite phosphates even in Northern England once more, becomes an economic venture.

RAC Esq. said...

Wow thanks for spending so much time on the interweb researching that for, err um some reason.

John Brown said...

Sackerson @ 6 September 2019 at 15:05 :

“The bit I still haven't found is exactly why Macmillan and Heath worked for us to join”

According to the BBC’s Nick Robinson Macmillan thought that a planned Western European Common Market would be dominated by Germany and would lead to a revival of German power and destroy our trade.

Nick Robinson says in his documentary “Europe : Them or Us” Part 1 (available on YouTube) at 19m 19s :

“He [Macmillan] was to lead the country through an extraordinary U-turn in its attitude to Europe. Why is revealed in these government papers held in the National Archives at Kew. In a memo written before the Common Market was formed, before MacMillan was PM, he writes : “It may be very dangerous to us, for perhaps Messina, those talks which set up the Common Market, will come off after all and that will mean Western Europe dominated in fact by Germany and used as an instrument for the revival of German power through economic means. It is really giving them on a plate what we fought two wars to prevent”.....HM was eventually to conclude that if you can’t beat them, join them”

Sackerson said...

@John Brown: thank you, much obliged. Though of course stated reasons may not be the real ones - and Heath, smarting from humiliation by the NUM, may have had his own motives. Must look into this further. Once again, thanks!

John Brown said...

Given that Leave won the referendum by votes 52:48 and by Parliamentary constituency 64:36 we have last week witnessed a Speaker led remainer coup that could last until 2022.

During this time Parliament may have revoked Article 50 or signed us up to the WA Treaty from which there is no lawful exit according to the AG and where we will be accepting EU laws, budgets, taxes, fines and policies (trade, energy, environment, foreign, immigration etc) but without representation or veto.

A treaty where Mr. Macron described the UK position thus :

“The UK will be trapped in a customs union after Brexit unless Downing Street offers European fishermen full access to British waters during the coming trade negotiations.”

And which was described by Mr. Verhofstadt’s staff as reducing the UK to EU colony status.

If our future Parliaments can be bound by such a treaty then the only way out of this predicament for England (where 8 out of its 9 regions voted to leave) will be for it to leave the UK.

[The EU has already made clear during the Scottish independence referendum that leaving the UK would mean that EU membership ceases.]

The Scots will be very happy to finally have separation from England whilst remaining in the EU, as perhaps will N.I. as they too voted to remain in the EU.

The Welsh, however, who voted leave, may prefer to join England in leaving the UK.

JPM said...

Anon, let them, try. It's been six years since I last blacked anyone's eye :-D

Bill Quango MP said...

To paraphrase

“How will democracy end?””

“Two ways,” Mike said.
“Gradually and then suddenly.”

Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel, The Sun Also Rises.

Smoking Scot said...

This is not good people, not good at all.

Span Ows said...

That link in the Indy is hilarious: top voted comment is clearly JPM Cheerful posing as Grundistled:

"Let’s see what happens when only five fat pensioners and a couple of dozen drunk football hooligans show up, like at every other Pro-Brexit event (Compared to the hundreds of thousands of well-behaved democratic protesters who turn up to anti-Brexit ones).

They haven’t got the numbers, and they know it. All mouth, and no trousers."

100% projection, lies and idicoy.

Span Ows said...

JPM said...19:41

"Anon, let them, try. It's been six years since I last blacked anyone's eye :-D "

Funny but when I read this I think it far more likely you have never blacked anyone's anything in your life, or if you did it was by accident.

selsey.steve said...

Those in Westminster would do well to read and re-read this prescient poem by Rudyard Kipling:-

It was not part of their blood,
It came to them very late
With long arrears to make good,
When the English began to hate.

They were not easily moved,
They were icy-willing to wait
Till every count should be proved,
Ere the English began to hate.

Their voices were even and low,
Their eyes were level and straight.
There was neither sign nor show,
When the English began to hate.

It was not preached to the crowd,
It was not taught by the State.
No man spoke it aloud,
When the English began to hate.

It was not suddenly bred,
It will not swiftly abate,
Through the chill years ahead,
When Time shall count from the date
That the English began to hate.