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Tuesday, 3 September 2019

The Elephant in the room

OK let's talk about the Brexit Party. This is Electoral Calculus' latest data run, from 31st August. It gives Boris a majority of 62.

Things change fast. Just three weeks earlier, the plot was showing no overall majority for the Conservatives - and it goes without saying that in three weeks' time it could be different again. So my guess is that Boris will keep watching the polling and particularly Dominic Cummings' private research before making any final decision, ruling nothing in or anything out.

Post-May, Tory donors have been coming back. The Midlands Industrial Council, the most engaged and effective of the funder groups, already have a target list of marginal seats. You can be sure that unlike the incompetent May and her ex-Home Office mates, this election will be fought very slickly.

Boris will do what's necessary to gain a working power base. That includes clearing out the Tory rebels who will oppose him today. The one crystal clear, unequivocal, overwhelming desire of the country is NOT to extend the Brexit process any longer. If the Commons remoaners win their vote today, they will cement this as a People vs Parliament election - and the people, of course, will win. 

It's time we lanced this boil. The country needs to - if not get back to normal - start getting back to work.


DeeDee99 said...

When I voted LEAVE, I didn't vote to get a Surrender Treaty, which effectively makes us a colony of the EU.

Boris hasn't unequivocally rejected the Surrender Treaty. We are repeatedly told that the NI backstop has to go: there is no discussion of the other 40 "horrors" in the Treaty.

I don't trust him, or his treacherous Party, one little bit.

In Nigel I trust.

Curmudgeon said...

Voting Tory could mean voting for Philip Hammond or Amber Rudd. I'll make my own judgment based on the situation in my specific constituency. We wouldn't be where we are today without pressure from the Brexit Party.

Poisonedchalice said...

I am MUCH less worried about Brexit than I am about Corbyn. All of things he and Squealer the Pig wishes to enact fill me with dread. I guess I have about 20 years left and I have no intention of living them in Venezuelan penury. Boris might not be everyone's favourite but get this and get it quickly:

Vote Green - get Corbyn
Vote Brexit - get Corbyn
Vote LibDem - get Corbyn
Vote Corbyn - get Corbyn

Got it??

Raedwald said...

I should repeat what John Curtice has said on 'Today' - in effect that the Electoral Calculus model is based on a two party algorithm, and the results for 4 parties each with a decent vote share are not reliable.

No 10 must be wargaming this to death. Let's see what they come up with.

wg said...

Under the voting system we now have it seems that the Brexit Party would struggle to gain a seat.

I'm torn on the issue - I live in a city where UKIP have taken large portions of votes away from the Tories (obviously that can't be proven, and that there are anti-EU would-be Labour voters.)

As said above - we can only carry on threatening the Tories with the BP in public, but thinking differently in private.

The biggest weapon Boris has is the thought of a Corbyn government: that crowd will finish what Blair started.

Charles said...

Well I am not voting Tory, it’s the Brexit Party for me. My local Tory MP does not bother to speak to me, his majority is over 20k. He is not my cup of tea. In Bridgwater and West Somerset he has a huge majority and appears to do as he likes, well he can do so without my support. All politics is local and a glance at his expenses claims, I think 6 th highest in the country when the scandal broke, with his wife and two of his children on the payroll.....sorry.

Dave_G said...

Quite illustrating that the more 'Globalist' your party is, the more seats-per-percentage your vote returns.

The anti-globalist seats shows ZERO seats no matter how high their percentage of the vote.......

What that list shows, purposely or otherwise, is that your vote (for a definite Brexit-orientated party) will get you ZERO results and given the issue(s) at hand, shouldn't this fact be more widely reported?

Keeping the issue as divisive as is has been has been a deliberate policy to allow a 'third party' (or fifth columnist as Farage tells it) to take control.


DiscoveredJoys said...

And yet... if The Brexit Party concentrate on Labour constituencies which are strongly pro-Leave theu could perhaps win 10s of seats.

If Boris bottles Brexit, well things get more complicated.

JPM said...

Instead of the actual share of the vote in 2017, why not show the predicted one, and compare like with like?

A twenty-six point lead was interpreted as being a landslide, wasn't it?

I think that after three General Elections, a referendum, and two leadership food fights in four years, poor Brenda in Bristol and the millions for whom she speaks might have a gesture to make, involving the extremities of the hand.

John Brown said...

There is talk by remainers that if they succeed today in their attempt to pass legislation through Parliament to delay Brexit, then they will vote against any GE taking place until Brexit has been delayed.

[BTW, the current Brexit delaying proposal would force the PM to accept any length of delay that the EU wanted.]

BJ has said that he will not allow Brexit to be extended past the current date of 31/10.

So does this mean that he intends to ignore any Brexit delaying legislation passed by Parliament ?

According to an article in Guido Fawkes yesterday (10:22 am) there is precedent for this and Tony Blair has himself used this power on a number of occasions to block legislation of which he did not approve.

Or will he use this power to force the remainers to vote for a GE ?

Stephen J said...

@John Brown:

Johnson is primarily after getting the Selmayr deal through, it is clear, otherwise this proroguing business would have been set back a couple of weeks, so that parliament was still in recess on the last day of October.

He doesn't want to upset the EU, but even they come lower down the pecking order than the effin' Tory Party, which should be prosected for its chicanery.

RAC Esq. said...

Well my place has been labour since 1945, in 2017 Lab had 3 to 1 votes over Con so TBP is the only option as far as I am concerned.
Just my opinion, if Cons scorn TBP's offer and try to go it alone they are feckin stupid.

RAC Esq. said...

I will add that if Cons scorn TBP's offer of alliance, then deliberate splitting of the vote may be Boris's way of completing the sell out that May could not accomplish. He does not have my complete trust.

RAC Esq. said...

If Boris whilst swimming against the tide refuses a lifeline, thrown to him in all good faith.

Smoking Scot said...

As JPM pointed out, polls need to be viewed with great caution. We get the same crud virtually every week about how if this happens, or that, or any sodding thing, then Scotland will vote for independence.

Even Sturgeon is wary of them - and Boris knows the facts, so I see an election as a very last resort.

BJ comes with a great deal of baggage, both factual from his time as Foreign Minister and Mayoral stint - and that plus his personal life can be laundered by his many opponents.

Done correctly it could harm him and the party.

We have to keep focused; the referendum was a gnats whisker - and there are many powerful interests at play, so they will do their utmost to get the whole fiasco revoked. They have the money, they have the motivation and they have the flunkies to do their bidding.

Ordinary people who are disappointed with the result have shown they will turn to the LibDem party. And we have seen that they can coordinate with other parties to just field one candidate.

If BJ does have to go to the country, he must do a deal with the BP. It's just childish to do otherwise.

As many of your commentators have stated, they simply will not vote Tory, however an electoral pact, where UKIP came second and Tory way down not only will be seen as real commitment to getting out, but also of political maturity.

I believe this could sway some people who - understandably - distrust BJ.

There's that, then there's Scotland. He absolutely must get as many MP'S from us lot, if that creature, May, did then BJ must better her.

Still opine a GE is a very last resort.

JPM said...

The problem is, that the news is being made by fanatics, not by the people generally, who in the UK are often pretty apolitical and moderate.

So polls are likely to be even more unreliable than ever.

The extent of the Brenda Effect is a huge unknown, as is that of tactical voting.

It worked well in Brecon, and maybe in Peterborough too.

Also, Johnson has held the headlines to date with a load of attention-seeking stunts. They would be suspended during a campaign, and the Opposition would get their share.

DiscoveredJoys said...


But *if* there is snap general election the Chancellor will already have revealed his spending review....

I suspect there is a complex gameplan that Boris is following and it is unlikely that he will be surprised by any twist or turn.

Dave_G said...

We could draw parallels with Trump's approach to maneuvering politically when you look at what Boris is doing - keep them guessing, let them draw themselves out then change tactics!

Second guessing the flow of events is pointless. Guessing the outcome less so - we'll end up 'attached' to the EU someway that is severely detrimental to the country - but only revealed after the fact.

Boris vin Chaud said...

GBP rose once the Conservatives lost their majority earlier today.

Market signals a little less national humiliation.

JPM said...

The incessant claim that every single Leave vote was one for No Deal can easily be tested, can't it?

Simply have another vote with exactly that on the ballot paper, or Remain?

No "easiest deal in history", or "Norway option" Farage baloney to confuse people, no, they'd know what they are voting for this time.

Now, THAT's informed democracy.

Isn't it?

What's not to like?

Smoking Scot said...

No JPM, it cannot be "easily" tested. It takes time and a great deal of money - and time we do not have.

Furthermore do make some attempt to credit others with some degree of intelligence. Indeed, perhaps infinitely more than yourself.

And if by some underhand method an exact rerun resulted in exactly the same percentage, then they'll have wasted those resources.

It was a one shot pop JPM. May attempted to put her interpretation of exit to our elected representatives. BJ is unlikely to make the same mistake.

Do get this very clear. Even if article 50 is revoked, that will simply put us back to 5 years ago. The demand is there, it is becoming ever more frustrated and it will find the political means to get us out - clean.

Anonymous said...

@Smoking Scot

Actually, it won't put the country back 5 years ago. Not after the mud your pals have slung at Boris' 'friends' in Europe.

Don't you get it? You can't Leave (GFA treaty conditions) and you can't Remain. Welcome to purgatory.