The cabal in the Berlaymont would be mad not to accept Britain's offer.
I wrote on Tuesday that I doubted Boris could get the three green ticks he needed to get a deal through. Today it looks as though two of those ticks are tentatively there. The Telegraph reports that the ERG, the Tory turncoats and about 25 Labour rebels could vote for the deal in the Commons. Whatever Farage is saying isn't being heard by the media. Germany is in recession and the Eurozone faces a series of economic bodyblows that will be exacerbated by a clean Brexit; they will grasp at the offer. That just leaves Brussels.
I've always pushed strongly for a clean Brexit, and like many have problems with some of the other baggage apart from the backstop in the draft Treaty. So why do I find myself this morning ready to shrug my shoulders and support Boris if he gets agreement for this deal? I'm not sure. But there it is.
Boris has effectively isolated the EU zealots in Brussels and Varadkar's fatuous posturing. Britain's mature, sensible offer and our reasonableness and statecraft are now on view to the world, released in those documents. The EU's every petulant instinct must be to reject the UK's offer - but do they dare?
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30 comments:
They won't reject it. Like the chap running the EU satellite program, they will propose a graceful path towards cooperation. In the background, businesses and the smart folk (Irish diaspora of the 1980s) will migrate, taking their tax contribution with them.
The tricky bit is how Boris passes the revised WA. He won't be able to magic up the numbers in Parliament. Check out the betting sites and you'll see what I mean.
@ Anonymous
"The tricky bit is how Boris passes the revised WA. He won't be able to magic up the numbers in Parliament."
Boris is playing a blinder... if the EU don't agree he can justify leaving with no deal, wiggle out of the Surrender Act, and press on looking for a FTA with our "European Friends".
If the EU agree he can tell the rest of Parliament that it is his deal or no deal - and the responsibility rests with them. They will only discredit themselves further if they turn down 'a deal'. In which case he can justify leaving with no deal, wiggle out of the Surrender Act, and press on looking for a FTA with our "European Friends".
There's no political advantage in the collective Remainers trying to force another extension (even if the EU was prepared to grant it), and even if they did Boris can make a great play for a GE which will probably give him the numbers to press ahead with Brexit.
"So why do I find myself this morning ready to shrug my shoulders and support Boris if he gets agreement for this deal?"
Like all die hard Tories, Party before country.
We need a clean break now. Simply because there must be no sembalege of a relationship, that the Remainers can lever into associate membership and then full vassalage ten years down the road.
I know some don't consider it proper MSM, however The Express newspaper does report on what Farage thinks of Boris strategy. Essentially the same as yourself until yesterday. He has not succumbed to Brexit fatigue.
And GBP 39bn is far too great a divorce settlement.
For the first time I am thinking that maybe Boris actually means it. I still don't fully trust him and I will only relax when we have finally, actually left.
That said, I think DJ above sums it up quite well. It could STILL be some machiavellian remainiac plot, but this is becoming more and more difficult to rationalise.
Looks like Boris has finally done what should have been done three years ago.
I expect Merkel will agree to bung Ireland some money to "help with transition" providing Varadkar backs down. And if he won't and it results in No Deal, Ireland will lost 5% or more of its GDP.
The posturing Varadkar will fold....and the world will know that both Ireland and Brussels attempted to use the fear of Irish terrorists to bully the UK into staying in the EU ...... and failed.
I'm waiting for Farage's verdict. In particular, I want to know if Treason May's policy of transferring our Intelligence, Security and Armed Services to EU control is scrapped.
If ticking the box of the Irish Backstop/Border issue is all that's been resolved by BJ then we're set for betrayal of enormous proportions for the remainder of the 'treaty' was far, far more restrictive and detrimental to the UK than the Irish malarkey.
I am not impressed with this change of course. It's more of a counter-rudder than a new heading (Raed will get that one).
Boris was right when he saaid that you can't polish a turd.
However, that does not seem to have stopped him from trying, and what is more bribing his colleagues to tell him how shiny he has made it.
Still a fucking turd though.
You said that you were "dumbstruck" by the fairly predictable ruling of the Supreme Court's ruling the other day, Raedwald.
Judging by the imaginary world that you seem to inhabit, I can see why, and this latest piece gives us more clues.
As I said before the ruling, the fact of Johnson's refusal to make a statement on Oath would likely damage his case.
It turned out to be fatal.
The Court said that they had NO EVIDENCE of a justification for the prorogation.
By that they meant the absence of such a statement.
Now these are simple, well-reported matters of fact, of central importance, and yet you seem utterly immune to their significance.
What is the matter with you?
I've got £9billion plus £12billion a year for two years plus £8.4billion a year in customs collections that says they will accept it.
It's still shite tough...
JPM - Fuck off. The Supreme Court made up a law and then applied it.
Its BS. Expect it to be abolished or severely curtailed.
Boris was right when he said that you can't polish a turd.
However, that does not seem to have stopped him from trying, and what is more, bribing his colleagues to tell him how shiny he has made it.
Still a fucking turd though.
I read the published documents that have been sent to Brussels yesterday, and at no point does it mention that the new EU treaty is not the basis for our “independence”. Just tacking a couple of bits of paper to that treaty does not make it acceptable.
As Bismarck said, it would be like papering over the cracks.
(apols for the “unknown” comment above, that was me, and caused by me rebuilding my computer and failing to sign in with Googley).
Wow, there is no point in trying to confuse Googly, even though I have good reason to try.
I am "unknown" today, but I have finally managed to sign in as r_writes esq., and I won't be tomorrow...
I am sure you are all hanging on my every word. :)
The EU is corrupt, as it was designed to be, in order to bring about a superstate through stealth.
It has corrupted our MPs, civil service, corporations and judiciary whilst fleecing us with a large membership fee, loss of assets (fishing grounds) and enormous trade deficit to pay for it.
The Lisbon Treaty, which allows QMV for the EU budget, foreign affairs, armaments, justice, border checks, asylum , immigration, transport, energy, freedom of movement, social security, defence, etc. etc., means that we are going to be ruled by 27 (soon to be 34) other countries, the majority of whom are net recipients.
Any existing vetos no longer have any value as Mr. Cameron found out in 2011 when the EU simply made new rules to stop him applying our veto.
It cannot be reformed from within and so we must leave and by strangling the corruption supply lines into the UK eventually develop an establishment that wants to look after our nation’s interests.
I hope the EU reject Prime Minister Johnson's proposals.
I have got to the point now that only a complete exit from the EU on the 31st. October this year, is acceptable. I don't want the EU to have anything of ours; no money, no, access to our armed forces and secret service, no access to our laws, no access to our fishing grounds, no access to our border controls. Nothing.
The EU has demonstrated over the past 40 or so years that it is populated by our enemies and we should treat them as such, including the fifth column traitors in our midst.
If, as you claim, you understood how common law works, then you wouldn't foolishly claim that the Supreme Court made up a law. It did not - though it does have that power within the scope of existing law.
It discerned, from precedent and statute, what the rule, implied or express was, and simply applied it.
That takes learning, intellect, and sometimes courage. These people demonstrated that they have all of those.
You can get as ill-tempered and foul-mouthed as you like, sunbeam. It won't change a thing.
@Cheerful
I shudder to think of your porn collection. Judges teasingly parting their robes to show a hint of courage or intellect.
Belgians with strange hair and glasses!
I bet you write some weird fan fiction. Oh wait....you post it here!
You can always tell when Cheesy's rattled - he becomes personally offensive, having no arguments, even the most spurious distortions of reality, on which to fall back.
It's a pretty accurate barometer that we're getting it right.
@ John in Cheshire, 3 October 2019 at 11:29
I completely agree.
Piss off Cheesy.
While waiting for a full analysis by the lawyers who destroyed Treason May’s WA I think this is better. BoJo clearly says that we are NOT to be under their customs and laws.
BoJo is BlueLabour but is now far too far Brexit-linked to go any other way. If he has just rehashed Treason’s BRINO –well he hopes to be PM after a GE–it would hardly help him if the Deal allows the EU to stop our trade deals and kick the shit out of us economically for the next 5 years. That was exactly what Treason May intended. As her EU masters told her to.
So I cautiously think this deal an improvement. The DUP and ERG accept it inc Steve Baker and Bill Cash. Who has fought the EU longer than Cash?
The EU likely won’t accept it .
The “Big 3” of the House of Traitors treason-gang have already rejected it. Tho’ it seems possible numbers of ZaNu MPs might vote for it on the grounds that they don’t want to lose the best job they will ever have.
And Irish puke Vardo has said he might well veto it anyway.
So No Deal is still the most likely.
Re: JPM
"It discerned, from precedent and statute, what the rule, implied or express was, and simply applied it."
You are so full of shit. This is the whole point - they did neither.
If you want to educate yourself, which I doubt, as there's likely fuck all that will penetrate your bozone layer, listen to any of the long form interviews with David Starkey where he expands on this to enormously entertaining and enlightening effect.
Ah. Looks like the European Union's "rubber-stamping" Parliament won't rubber-stamp Al's proposal.
And yet you're jumping up and down, because the UK's won't do just that either, nor any other of his preposterous ideas..
@Cheerful
So why should Boris change it?
Here's my twopenn'orth.
Council of Ministers, 16th of October:
"No can do Boris, you ain't leaving and we have a cunning strategy, called the Hotel California Plan, to make sure you don't. First of all we will offer to extend Article 50 again; our embedded team in your House of Commons will action our offer, bringing you down in the process. Apologies in advance. Whilst the period of extension may include a General Election our plan is robust enough to counter any outcome by simply offering another extension - we need the money and a billion pounds a month will help keep the wolf from the door. Ta".
Steve
Its a Surrender Treaty, meaningfully no different than Mays.
EU law continues to apply to the UK
We should tell Leo Varadkar to fuck himself, leave and not do anything on the border.
If he wants a border to protect the tax rules of his EU overlords then let him build a border. We should just be open for business.
Considering that the perceived wisdom is that people both North and South of the border do not want a hard border, you really have to ask yourself who Varadkar is actually batting for - his masters or his voters.
Brace for BRINO. More can-kicking.
Mr Barnier, by far the superior negotiator added the border issue as an easily bargained-away item, now BoJo the clown is pretending this is a big win. The rest of the abysmal Political and Working Agreement remains-19 billion exit fee, Monthly remittances, EU fishing, no border controls, EU law. The ConMens appeasement is being ignored.
The Hotel California gambit:
European Union Could Bypass Johnson to Delay Brexit
EU sources have said that they are willing to take any request for a Brexit delay — even if it does not come from Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/10/03/european-union-could-bypass-johnson-to-delay-brexit/
Steve
JPM 09:02 "You said that you were "dumbstruck" by the fairly predictable ruling of the Supreme Court's ruling the other day, Raedwald.
Nobody, not A SINGLE source predicted it. Some hoped but thought unlikely, other suggested split, others suggested taking the HMG's side. Oh wise one, tell us your magicalness, enlighten us.
JPM 11:40 "If, as you claim, you understood how common law works, then you wouldn't foolishly claim that the Supreme Court made up a law. It did not - though it does have that power within the scope of existing law.
It discerned, from precedent and statute, what the rule, implied or express was, and simply applied it."
LOL...ROFL, ROFLMAO...you absolute twat. Hahahahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
No, it didn't.
NEXT!
@DiscoveredJoys … "Boris is playing a blinder". That's fine if you are referring to the way he is successfully conning the Brexit Brigade.
You might care to check his legal submission to the court in Edinburgh today. It goes something like this … Boris would abide by the terms of the Benn Act and would not try to "frustrate" the law.
Let's remember that he was not going to talk to his European friends until they agreed to discard the backstop. A few days later, he's running off to Bonn and Paris.
He's playing a blinder. What on earth are you smoking?
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