There is really nothing useful to be done for the next day or two. Nothing to analyse, nothing upon which to opine. We are waiting for Boris.
The Prime Ministers' proposals, whatever they are, face three hurdles. The first is the Irish and the EU, still not ready to relinquish the opportunity to subject the UK to a punishment beating. Second are Brexiteers - the ERG within our own party and TBP without - who need to see much of the other dangerous stuff in the draft Robbins-Selmayr Treaty go. And finally is the Remain Alliance, now fully out in the open in declaring that they don't give a fig for democracy and will use their final days in parliament, before we voters evict them, to do everything they can to block Brexit.
My own feeling is that there are no proposals on earth that would allow a deal to get a green tick from all three.
One must therefore suppose that the PM's proposals are for the world outside Europe and for posterity. In international statecraft terms, leaving without a deal is akin to the British ambassador waving his todger about and pissing from the embassy balcony. So if it happens, apportioning the blame for it is critical. Submitting a perfectly reasonable, workable plan to the EU to have it rejected with their usual amateur jejune petulance puts the blame on Brussels.
Likewise it sucks the wind from the sails of any remaining shred of pretence from the bent Speaker, Bercow, and his corrupt parliamentary cabal that they are genuinely concerned about no deal.
And Boris' refusal to countenance any deal with TBP says to me that he is very confident that we will be out in 30 days - deal or no deal. If he pulls it off and keeps his job, it will be the greatest political triumph since MT re-took the Falklands. We have a month to wait and see.
28 comments:
JPM - OT
Raedwald,
I do so hope your faith in Mr Johnson will be justified. He does appear to be behaving with a little more maturity, and saying, mostly, the right things. But, and its based on his career thus far, he does let people down, especially those who need him. Will the honest Brexiteers be just another of Boris' use 'em and leave 'em partners?
It is not Johnson who will not countenance a deal. It is Farage, who demands that Cummings must go first.
In other words, he wants one with the monkey and not with the organ grinder.
Why is acceptance of a deal up to the Nige? He's not even an MP remember.
After an election, it may be a completely different matter but remainiacs pointedly don't want one.
There's a lot of speculation about what is in the draft legal agreement. Boris has decline to share the details before sharing them with our "European friends".
But if the draft is "reasonable", and shared with EU businesses to soften the stance of other EU members, then Boris could reasonably put the new draft to Parliament for agreement - with the alternative being 'no deal'.
It might work... fear of no deal and Corbyn in charge could drive acceptance by the EU, Remainers and Leavers alike. Instead of May trying to please everyone, Boris is trying to use everyones' self interest.
And the Political Declaration?
To clarify, by deal, I meant electoral pact, not one with the European Union.
Given that the 'Supreme Court' has just done what it was expressly prohibited form doing. Where or what legislation provides its authority to do so?
". That the freedom of speech and debates or proceedings in Parliament ought not to be impeached or questioned in ANY court or place out of Parliament.. " --BoR 1689
You are --as ever--a fucking liar Cheesy--Farage made unconditional offers several times.
Before any Deal --BoJo has to front and destroy the HoTraitors. That is his first obstacle.
I doubt he will get shit from the scum of the EU. They prefer to use their tame Traitors to try for a takeover.
I stand corrected.
However this remainiac parliament is clearly trying to overturn a plebiscite it would have absolutely accepted had the vote gone the way it wanted.
This is not about Brexit anymore.
No Mark, Parliament isn't trying to overturn the vote.
The ballot paper was silent on the post exit relationship with the European Union.
Parliament is trying to defend the country from the arsonists, who lyingly say that a) the ballot was expressly for a no-deal exit and b) that at least sixteen and a half million of the seventeen and a half million consciously voted for that.
That's self-evident bollocks.
Isn't it?
No Cheerful it isn't. The question was clear: REMAIN or LEAVE. It made no mention of a deal either way.
The "arsonists" are not saying that no deal was implicit but it was clearly the default. A deal would be nice but Treason herself said 108 times "no deal is better than a bad deal".
All the remain propaganda which pointedly avoided what remaining meant going forward (and still does in case you haven't noticed), obsessed with the disaster that would befall us (and the whole world) on leaving. This disaster would have occurred with a deal?
Leave couldn't get a word in edgeways BTW.
Yout obtuseness is utterly wilful. You know you're wrong.
So what is a second referendum with different questions if not an attempt to overturn the first? Come on Spock, how about a bit of that remorseless remainer logic that so shows us up for the ignorant morons you know we all are?
@ JPM
"The ballot paper was silent on the post exit relationship with the European Union."
The Government said that they would implement the decision of the Referendum. The Referendum instructed the Government to Leave. The subsequent legislation passed by a huge majority of MPs contained 'leave with no deal' as the default.
Even if 'leaving with no deal' was detrimental to the UK, the Government is honour bound to execute 'Leave'. There are many who think that reneging on the democratic instruction would be more damaging in the long run.
It is so easy to forget Article 50 and its powerful legal force. Two years after invocation and with no proper reason to extend the two year deadline, which there was not, WTO trading rules were required to come into force. Even with a fudged, illegal extension, only one such delay is legal.
So voting to leave the EU implicitly had a deal attached. Still, the EUSSR never let laws and rules to be observed when it suits. The mark of a despotic regime. Like tame Judges doing their 30 pieces of Iscariot silver.
It seems to me that TBP is fishing in Labour held seats. IMHO the voters there have not been pro-Labour for some time, but are anti-Tory. Farage may well glean more votes without an arrangement with the Tory party than he will with one.
Given that the Tories won't be canvassing these unwinnable seats, that might be the best help Boris can give him.
DJ, since it was a Tory government which made that promise, there is a case, though not legally binding, that subsequent Tory ones should honour it, but absolutely no obligation on any other.
However, governments can only act with the endorsement of our sovereign Parliament, and this one has no majority.
There was no timescale promised, and the A50 terms were merely incidental.
Dominic Cummings was correct, in that it was idiotic to trigger it when May did.
@ JPM
"DJ, since it was a Tory government which made that promise, there is a case, though not legally binding, that subsequent Tory ones should honour it, but absolutely no obligation on any other."
Except that both main parties had manifestos at the last General Election which said they would honour the Referendum result, so Governmental 'honour' was handed on. Since the various opposition parties have refused to endorse having another GE there has been no opportunity to gracefully surrender the Referendum result. It still stands.
Leave won the referendum, albeit marginally.
But where is the evidence, that Leave With No Deal also won it?
All the Leave campaigns said that there would be one. Paterson talked of the EEA, Farage repeatedly of Norway and Switzerland, Fox said that it would be the easiest in history. And we know all about Hannan.
Come on.
Evidence.
JPM @ 14:32
Leave Won. Marginally or otherwise is irrelevant. Same as in FPTP. Only one vote is enough. Deal with it.
You don't need evidence for Leave with No Deal. No Deal, or rather a clean break Brexit, logically is the default. As Mark made clear, the question was clear: Leave or Remain. Nothing else was mentioned.
There were options on the table, that is to say EEA, or a Norway type arrangement, and May turned down a Canada Plus deal.
The simple fact is that May didn't want a deal, and if she did, it had to be so bad that it would never get through Parliament.
If a Leaver had been PM, the a very simple deal could have been done with the EU, but neither the Remoaners, like yourself, or the EU wanted one. Remember is was Juncker who said that "Brexit could not be a success"
Either we had to be coerced into Remaining or offered a rubbish deal.
So, if all the deals have been rejected, there is only ONE OPTION LEFT:
NO DEAL Brexit.
And that needs to be hammered into your thick skull over and over and over again until you understand that no deal is better than a bad deal.
@ JPM
"But where is the evidence, that Leave With No Deal also won it?"
But where is the evidence that Remain with specified consequences (joining the euro, an EU army, standardised taxation, banning of high power kettles) would have lost by an even greater margin?
Two people can play at 'what ifs' but you are not entitled to conclude that your 'what if' affects the validity of the Referendum in any way.
If ever you needed evidence, that Johnson is merely a stage-managed puppet, then the cameo with the disposable cup looks to be pretty incontrovertible.
I'll leave aside all the whataboutery and straw men.
So what if people change their minds, on seeing that what they were promised by ALL the leave campaigns is not, after all, available?
You seem to be saying that they are not allowed to do that, just like the islamic fanatics do, about votes to become an islamic state.
Don't you?
If after Brexit people think we should rejoin the EU, then another referendum on this would not be impossible.
However, I reckon once they see the manifold benefits of being out, at a time the Eurozone is disintegrating and sucking in all the wealth of the net contributor nations to keep the Berlaymont dream alive, I don't reckon voters will ever, ever vote to rejoin. All the Remain lies will have been proven false, all the fearmongering just a desperate hollow smokescreen.
I don't think we'll ever, ever vote to rejoin. Hence the desperation of Remainers who are seeking to trick, subvert, destroy and use every filthy corrupt and improper act in the book to try to undermine the people's democratic decision to Leave.
JPM said So what if people change their minds, on seeing that what they were promised by ALL the leave campaigns is not, after all, available?
So, why aren't Remainers pointing out the 'wonderful' future for a UK in the EU? All the 'advantages' of remain? We know why - it was pointed out above.....
Both the effects of Brexit on the EU itself AND the future of the UK if we remained in the EU are two subjects that are studiously avoided by everyone in the media - including people like yourself - as it would clearly ruin any pretext for the remain side.
We're under a deluge of make-believe threats that have no basis in fact - the global climate emergency to name but one and yet not ONE prediction (climate or Brexit) have come to pass..... nor are they likely to. But we have to go the journey to discover the truth in both cases. 12 years from now the globe will be as it is today and the UK will still be the UK, trading globally and making its own success in the world.
@ JPM
"But where is the evidence, that Leave With No Deal also won it?"
oh FFS. Another bollocks argument from the resident arse.
What Parliament means by a deal, is for example Labour's proposed approach of staying in the SM and the CU, which also involves staying in the ECJ.
Its not leaving in any way shape or form. It is however lying and hoodwinking.
We were offered Canada+ but Treason May screwed that up. Now the EU thinks their 5th columninsts will win the day.
So the only way we can now leave is no deal.
Suck it up snowflake.
Was just thinking there is really nothing useful to be done for the next day or two. Nothing to analyse, nothing upon which to opine. We are waiting for Boris. Came to see what you had. Ha ha.
No border checks = Revoke Art 50.
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