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Friday, 18 October 2019

Will they or won't they?

It's now up to MPs. Either they swallow the Boris deal and we leave at the end of the month, or they vote it down and we're in unknown territory again. Personally I reckon Boris has played a blinder. Juncker would not have made clear his support for no further extension if he had not been reasonably certain that at least one of the 27 was so much on his wavelength as to veto the necessary unanimous decision of the council that would be necessary.

I won't rehash all the acres of newsprint on this. It's not a good treaty and it's not a treaty that will last for long, I suspect - but it gets us out and it starts the process. As a contributor keeps reminding me, after forty years Brexit is not an event but a process and if it takes ten years to unwind completely then so be it. But we must start somewhere and here is the best we can get.

I can offer only the same message as the Express this morning.


48 comments:

r_writes esq. said...

It is a treaty that we must bend to, it is less about leaving than remaining.

So after a two year transition period, there is a four year period where NI remains. Do you think that during this six year period that the remainers are just going to sit and watch?

These are powerful people.

The only blinder Boris has played is the one where he seems to have blinded a bunch of tories... again!

r_writes esq. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Smoking Scot said...

For those of us who'd like a_simple precis of the "deal".

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1191912/Brexit-deal-explained-new-Brexit-deal-details-Boris-Johnson-Brexit-deal-reached

The Express doesn't seem very optimistic he can get the numbers and whatever the outcome it'll be like the referendum, wafer thin.

We are and will remain deeply polarised.

r_writes esq. said...

@Smoking Scot:

May I suggest that deep polarisation began in 1972 with the ECA and was deepened in 1975 with the totally unbalanced EEC referendum during which the leavers were ahead until the results were announced.

I have been party to a significant polarisation ever since...

I just didn't keep moaning on about it, or attempt to stop the winners.... taking all. Which is precisely what they did!

DeeDee99 said...

It's a dreadful Treaty and I would much rather have a Clean Break Brexit, but the cowards and anti-democrats who infest Parliament will never allow it.

As a Brexit Party supporter, I attended a meeting of activists in West Dorset this week. I told our prospective candidate that whilst I continue to support the Party, I won't be helping her campaign in a General Election. The replacement for the Quisling Letwin is the former Association Chairman, a local man and a genuine EU-sceptic who voted Leave and was furious about Letwin's betrayal. Campaigning against him is, in my view, a waste of time.

I think Nigel should very reluctantly but graciously stand the troops down in Leave-voting Conservative seats and go all out to damage Labour and the LibDems in the coming General Election - with or without a deal with the CONs. And if Boris' refusal to do a deal means that the CONs don't win a large majority, that's their fault.

Instead, I shall travel to my nearest LibDem or Labour Constituency/target Constituency and campaign against them.

mikebravo said...

How many more times will the Selmayer/Robbins stitch up have to be voted down? Moving the border from Ireland to the north sea is just putting lipstick on a pig.
Johnson is and always has been a lying charlatan.

Rossa said...

The Independent has reported that MPs will vote on a second referendum tomorrow. Juncker says no extension, so what use is that vote?

Guido reports on JRM announcing that tomorrow’s vote is a simple choice. Either MPs vote for this deal or if they vote against it it means they have voted for No Deal. Either way it neuters the Benn Act and means we’re out on 31 October.

JPM said...

Of course it's dreadful.

All versions of leaving the European Union are, exactly as was repeatedly explained to you by the Remain campaigns.

We will be worse off, have less influence, and reduced international standing under them all.

You can't say that you were not warned.

The European Union will probably come on in leaps and bounds however, freed from its cynical ball-and-chain.

Thud said...

JPM, you should be happy that your euro masters are finally free from Britain, after all just what did Britain ever do for the world?

Anonymous said...

Well said Thud. And as for the ever-predictable JPM, even he is qualifying his optimism about the EU's future.

rapscallion said...

I'm with Martin Daubney (Brexit Party MEP) on this one. "It's not the worst deal in history, it's the second worst deal"

It's the May Deal reheated with additional lipstick on the pig.

It's a rubbish deal Radders and you know it is.

Your party is toast.

Dave_G said...


Disappointed in your stance Radders. You have taken the bait and are being led, like the MPs are being led, into supporting something that is BRINO and that will be undermined at every stage until it's Remain-after-all.

As much as the MP's currently state that they won't support this deal their alternative is to accept No Deal and the net result is the Deal will pass.

Next step is a GE where TBP will (should) make good but the co-opting of Farage (after his overnight disappearance at his last GE) will bring about 'revelations' to destroy their impetus and Game, Set, Match to the Deep State.

Our only chance now is that Boris is genuine (almost impossible to believe) in that he's done this to force the MP's to vote no and thereby nullify their opposition to No Deal and we leave WTO.

I pray I'm wrong and the deal is rejected but given the politicians don't want to leave and the deal is 'remain' (by every possible description), this is what we'll get.

And YOU fell for it Radders.......

Dave_G said...


As for JPM and "The European Union will probably come on in leaps and bounds" You are deluded, seriously deluded.

The EU and the Euro are going to collapse - no question - and now the UK is on the hook for the expense of it.

The EU know and they (Merkel) have spoken openly of a 'free' UK being serious competition to EU business practices and they can't have that being made so transparently apparent to other member countries NOR can they allow the UK to weather a financial storm that will take the EU/Euro down but leave the UK (relatively) unharmed.

By fair means or foul (foul, obviously) the EU want the UK destroyed, to suffer more than 'they' will in the coming catastrophe.

Anonymous said...

Well what can one say. Basically Johnson's splendiferous 'new deal' is Mother Theresa's BRINO with just 60 out of 600 pages altered. So 90 per cent her WA. You couldn't make it up. As John Redwood states this new Treaty also has no unilateral exit. No Article 50. Oh, and Macron et al get to fish in our waters, forever.

Just as well Parliament will turn it down on Saturday.

Steve

Mark said...

@Dave_G

Absolutely and this is the light in which this deal should be seen.

It's not a case of us being trapped in the maws of a ruthless and remorseless foe, but where we'll be when it tears itself apart.

Look at the behaviour of the kleptocracy over the last three years and then ask yourself how it will exploit its satraps in its desperation to survive armed, as it soon will be, with the Lisbon treaty.

Stuart said...

We want to know what this "deal" means for the UK, our country. Having read this, I'm not at all pleased?

https://www.brugesgroup.com/blog/the-revised-withdrawal-agreement-and-political-declaration-a-briefing-note

RAC said...

All the Cons are interested in is power. They would sell their own mother to get an election victory, and if they can palm us off with Mays Brino then it's a double win for them, selling our country out is a price they are more than willing to pay. Only voting against them in the best possible way in your own constituency will either stop them or punish them. If I think TBP is in with a good chance at my place they'll get my vote, failing that I'll even hold my nose and vote labour. Treacherous Cons have fucked and farted around for more than three years then come up with this shite. No fucking sale.

Wessexboy said...

Agree with you Raedwald; let the process start.

Mr Ecks said...



The choice is getting out or NOT getting out. The 450 traitors are in our way . If the Deal gets us OUT it will do. Radders is correct.

Once out we can wipe our arse on the EU and their Treaty. The moaners on here should show some sense. TBP won't win a GE outright so you can forget that.

As for you Cheesy--what's needed is a Punishment and Retaliation Commission to ensure scum-dross like you get what you deserve.

r_writes esq. said...

They keep going about this deal/treaty, when the important bit keeps being left out.

Democracy is being euthanised, and we are not supposed to notice.

Forget the rest.

Mr Ecks said...



Oh and the county is maj LEAVER. It is NOT polarised. It is that the political and boss (because we have let them be) class have the EU's rotted cock so far up their arses that it serves them as a second tongue. Any on here who think TBP is a miraculous answer to that need to think again. Look at the Beaks. This is to be a long war against globo elite scum who have some very dark and nasty plans for ordinary people.

The first step is to get OUT. Then we need to reform a new Party for freedom and against elites. But first OUT.

The choice is do we get out on poor terms --which we can change--or not get out at all.

RAC said...

"which we can change" Fat chance, I guarantee any change will be to re-ensnare us.

Span Ows said...

DeeDee, that would be Yeovil! The Lib Dems had a good run for many years with Paddy then Laws. The Conservative MP now is Marcus Fysh, a very strong Brexiteer whom I suspect will not vote for this BRINO due to security aspects etc.

I too am a TBP supporter and donor btw.

I agree with Mr Ecks. OUT first then play on.

Dr Evil said...

FFS. It's a BRINO. My vote will be for the Brexit Party. Boris sold us out.

Sobers said...

I truly can't understand why this is being described as a BRINO. Its not. We are out of the EU legally. We are out of the customs union. We have complete control of our own laws, apart from in NI, who will have a democratic vote every 4 years as to whether they want the IN/OUT halfway house to continue or not. We have a political declaration to sign a free trade deal, but thats not legally binding on either party, us or them. There is no backstop.

In effect what we have is a 14 month stand still period to sign a free trade deal, which if not done because the EU demand all sorts of things we don't want we leave on WTO terms anyway.

I am as hard core Brexiteer as the next man, but I have no problem with this deal. Like our host here I see Brexit as a process, its really very akin to a divorce. You very rarely dissolve a marriage of many decades with a clean break, walk away never to speak again, there's too many entanglements for that. You almost inevitably have to accept restrictions on your future action, perhaps for many years, until eventually you are completely and irrevocably apart. But the beauty of the divorce process is that once started there's rarely any going back. It becomes a series of steps whereby ones emotional, financial and legal commitments are separated over time.

And thats what we need to do now, take the next step. It may not be the perfect step that everyone wants in a perfect world, but its a step in the right direction, and once taken cannot be revoked. If you hanker after the perfect hard core Brexit in one fell swoop you are destined to be eternally disappointed. Not least because in trying to achieve you are more likely to end up with a far more close relationship with the EU than offered by this deal.

Just step back 5 years and ask yourselves if you were offered then the ending of freedom of movement, the ending of UK payments into the EU budget, the ability trade freely outside of EU restrictions with the rest of the world, the control of our own resources such as fishing etc, the ability to vary laws from what the EU have, and the ability to refuse to accept new EU legislation unilaterally, all the while maintaining a freedom of access to existing EU markets, what you would have thought of it. My guess is just about every single Brexit voter would have grabbed it with both hands.

The country needs some closure on this. It cannot go on tearing itself in two over it, for this to dominate politics for even more years to come. Its blatantly obvious that a decent % of the Deranged Remain MPs will be out on their ear in the next election, and Parliament will far better represent the country's views than it does now. Get this deal over the line and vote for real democrats and patriots at the next election, regardless of their party rosette and we will have a proper (and fair) Brexit.

aurelian2 said...

I'm pro-Leave, and have been since 1973, voting accordingly in 1975 and 2016.

I am astonished that any country could agree to partition itself by placing a border through its interior rather than maintain its external border with an inimical foreign power.

Truly, this is a war and the UK has been utterly defeated.

I think we should save the country, not the Conservative Party.

DiscoveredJoys said...

@Sobers

Quite so. Taking the next step, even if it temporarily delays our desired goals. I don't like the revised WA but I can see that the worst features have been eliminated. Is the NI situation desirable? No, but I rather expect *in practice* it will not be so bad on a day to day basis, and there is an 'out' if necessary.

Anonymous said...

So, Brexit Brigade willing to leave NI under ECJ rule and overlook its ramifications for the Union.

Once Boris slips this past the Brigade, it'll be straightforward to place GB under ECJ jurisdiction because of the desperation to get a trade deal during the Political Declaration negotiations.

No wonder Boris' European friends were smiling and patting him on the back.

Thin end of the wedge.

John Brown said...

As a long-term leaver I agree with Raedwald, Mr. Ecks, Wessexboy and Sobers that we need to grip this imperfect deal and make the first step to get ourselves out of the existing EU treaties.

So powerful, deep and widespread are the forces against Brexit that we must realise that we cannot extricate ourselves in one bound and that is why leaving must be seen as a process and not an event.

Leaving with a deal means the remainers are unable to carry out their threats of causing economic damage to the UK if we left with no deal.

This will be the first battle of many and so it will be necessary to vote into Parliament at the next GE as many MPs as possible who wish to work for the benefit of the UK and not the EU.

Once we have left we can then put a stop to the EU using our money to corrupt our politics, businesses, civil service, judiciary, educational establishments, media, quangos, focus groups, pressure groups, NGO’s and institutions by ensuring that all EU funding is declared, which I presume it will need to be in order for the government’s claim that the UK will initially cover all EU funding to be implemented.

Domo said...

Out of Europe, and ruled by Europe

Cascadian said...

Well said Domo.

39 billion quid to EU-YES
1 billion quid/ month to EU-YES
Freedom from ECJ-NO
EU control of fishing-YES
Freedom of movement for gimmegrants-YES

Theresa in trousers has achieved NOTHING except pissing off the DUP.

BoJo BRINO the CONmens biggest CON yet.

JPM said...

All versions of Leave are leave in name only, and always will be.

The fact that the UK is physically near-surrounded by the world's richest market of four hundred and fifty million people, and with which it has hitherto traded to the same extent as it does with the entire rest of the world put together guarantees that.

Get used to it.

Raedwald said...

Actually Cheesy we're part of a continent of 730m people with whom we trade, some 460m of whom are in a customs union. We'll continue to trade with them all - and on more advantageous terms than we have for the past 40 years.

Brexit doesn't alter the fact that we are and always have been part of Europe.

JPM said...

Yeah, actually Eurasia consists of billions, and the divisions are artificial.

However, most of it is a bit more than twenty-two miles away, or adjoining, as Ireland is.

No country on Earth has tried to trade more intensely with remote countries than it does with its immediate neighbours for obvious reasons, especially in the SERVICE SECTOR.

It will only ever be leave in name only, then, and a jolly good thing too.

anon 2 said...

Sorry Raedders --
I am not a eurolander.
I never will be eurolander.
I refuse to be european.
That's why my ancestors left euroland(ers) behind in the first place.
I also reckon that's why the good Lord separated us from them after the Younger Dryas.

anon 2 said...

PS: clarification . . .my apology @ 2:35 p.m. was for disagreeing with you/Raedwald, on your own blog --- I have no regreats about my non-euro position.

RAC said...

@ Sobers 14:57
" I am as hard core Brexiteer as the next man (really?), but I have no problem with this deal. Like our host here I see Brexit as a process, its really very akin to a divorce. You very rarely dissolve a marriage of many decades with a clean break, walk away never to speak again, there's too many entanglements for that. You almost inevitably have to accept restrictions on your future action, perhaps for many years, until eventually you are completely and irrevocably apart. "

Neat trick. Wrong parable.Replace divorce with abortion and all your excuses disappear.

anon 2 said...

Sigh ... no regrets.
Wish we could edit our posts here!

Smoking Scot said...

Today I witnessed politics for politics sake. Sheer malice - and for the first time agree with Tessa.

Anonymous said...

"No country on Earth has tried to trade more intensely with remote countries than it does with its immediate neighbours for obvious reasons, especially in the SERVICE SECTOR."

Read up on Empire Preference.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The EU is not Europe, any more than Napoleon's empire was Europe.

Don Cox

Jock Ular said...

Boris just needs to announce that the deal has been done and that we're out of the EU. No need for any substance behind that assertion. 90% of the Leave voting public will accept it.

Based on today's vote, Mrs. May swallowed Boris' guff. And she's got a geography degree.

Cascadian said...

I eagerly await Mr Barniers analysis of the proposed deal-he is the only adult involved with the negotiations.

I fear BoJingo the clown has signed onto Mr Macrons deal where you pay-and-pay and get no vote, as to future negotiations requiring 27 members approval-good luck with that! When DisMay votes for the deal and camoron agrees with it, you just know it is beyond dreadful.

John Brown said...

“No country on Earth has tried to trade more intensely with remote countries than it does with its immediate neighbours for obvious reasons, especially in the SERVICE SECTOR.”

I seem to recall various European nations trading intensely with India and far eastern countries in the 17th century when travel and communications made these countries far more “remote” than they are today.

Clacton Kid said...

Some people say that Boris failed his double glazed window selling course at Eton.

Anonymous said...

Boris' deal with the EU is still in draft form. It is not clear how anybody in their right mind could sign up to it until a stable version is available for scrutiny.

Anonymous said...

@Sobers

On your paragraph "Just step back and in 5 years ….." You list a bunch of aspirations which are not on the menu. Do a bit of homework as to what is realistically on offer. Hint - there's a heavy sprinkling of poverty.

Now, you might seek to become poorer. There are easier ways to do this than Brexit. Why do want to inflict poverty on your fellow countryfolks (and offspring if you have any)?

John Brown said...

Although the EU has inserted controlling and damaging clauses into its WA I believe these clauses will be in short time be either irrelevant or ignorable or unenforceable or simply found to be against international law.

Or we can do as the Germans Italians and Spanish who are the leading EU nations for non-compliance, and only comply with the law when taken several times to the ECJ after using avoidance and delaying tactics.

Perfectly feasible if we ever have a government and Parliament who are more interested in looking after the people of the UK than protecting EU interests.

JohnofEnfield said...

I’m happy that Boris is still in place. I sense that the electorate are getting more solidly behind him & that a GE will completely destroy any opposition to us leaving. “The Labour Party” will become a much smaller entity, perhaps best known as “The Grievance Party”.

The increasingly desperate tactics of the Remainers are getting even more outrageous. Golly I even heard that John Bercow is going to contact the EU on Monday! Bercow has become completely detached from reality with his mantra that “Parliament must be heard”. It doesn’t fit well with “Government must govern”. And I bet that Bercow will not step down on 31 October. The HoC will then become utterly uncontrollable. JRM’s walk-out on Saturday made just that point. “I’m sorry I have no means of restraining him”. Quite.

As for the spate of court cases on every tiny decision that the Executive make, that is going to create a vicious backlash at some stage. Where do these litigants think they are? The USA?

So Boris just continues to gently goad these idiots into even more unsustainable positions where everyone sees them even more clearly for what they are. Meanwhile his popularity continues to go up & up.

And just think of how the 27 see the prospect of an out -of-control GB still at the heart of the EU. Vetoing, blocking, filibustering. Their agenda of “Ever Close Union” is dead in the water until we are gone. Completely gone.

Divorce is difficult after fifty years of marriage but that doesn’t mean that it can’t be done.