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Sunday 2 June 2019

Minor earthquake in SW1

There's really only one story this weekend and it's not about politicians but about the British people. The latest Opinum poll for the Observer gives the following;

The paper reports that Electoral Calculus estimate that this vote in a GE would give TBP 306 seats - short of an overall majority - and the Conservatives 26. This Thursday's bye-election in Peterborough may give Farage his first MP and send shock waves throughout Europe. Without detracting from Nigel's accomplishments - which are momentous - these figures are less about Farage than about the British people, and the direction in which the country is headed. Politicians are either acutely sensitive and adjust their policies to the path the voters are following, or they are history.

And here I have a message for my Parliamentary Party. Sweeties, you're away with the fairies. You're buggering about playing games with the Leadership contest, with Florence of Belgravia and every other hopeless idiot using it as an aid to self-love and a marker for aspiration to future ministerial preferment. You're all on the verge of being swept away by a Teal tsunami. I hope you've got other careers on which to fall back (Florence can walk back to Afghanistan for all I care). 

Meanwhile dear Mr Trump is worth listening to; if you have a sensitive ear you will have detected a minor shift in tone. When speaking ad hoc and off piste, Donald is increasingly channelling his senior White House advisors. What we are hearing are the headlines lodged in his memory from secret Presidential briefings. Despite SW1 still trying desperately to pretend Nigel Farage doesn't exist and everything's still the same, the possibility that he may be the UK's next PM but one is clearly one of the US government's planned scenarios.

24 comments:

Stephen J said...

Looks like CUK have been... er... cucked.

What a well thought out campaign that was. It sure is nice to know that our professional politicians are so competent.

I am told there are a good number of them with these skills in Westminster, clearly we are blessed.

rapscallion said...

"Despite SW1 still trying desperately to pretend Nigel Farage doesn't exist and everything's still the same, the possibility that he may be the UK's next PM but one is clearly one of the US government's planned scenarios."

... and wouldn't that be fun. Can you imagine the number of exploding heads all over the shop, including the site's resident cretin "Cheerful Edward", who I suspect wouldn't be terribly cheerful if that were to happen. It would be so worth it, just to see the look on their faces and the wailing and screeching of those suffering from Farage Derangement Syndrome, just as all the globalist suffer from Trump Derangement syndrome in the States.

Most important of all, would be the return of our democracy, our sovereignty,our borders, our ability to make our own trade deals, but most of all, our pride and self respect. You can't buy that!

DeeDee99 said...

A very large number of Establishment Remainers, still trying to overturn the Referendum or render it meaningless with a BRINO, broke out in a cold sweat when they saw that poll.

They've got an electoral Magnum .44 pointed at them and Farage, on behalf of the Brexit-supporting majority, asking:

"Do ya feel lucky, punks. Well do ya?"

RAC said...

" Politicians are either acutely sensitive and adjust their policies to the path the voters are following, or they are history."

WRONG.

Politicians who *adjust* their policies and outlook are not what we want. For once elected they will revert to their old ways. They are duplicitous bastards.
We need more people like President Trump and Farage, who state their intent at the outset. State it in plain English without the mealy mouthed politically correct double speak.

Charles said...

Heseltine on LBC this morning. He serves a valuable purpose, my blood pressure is up, I have leaking taps in the garden to see to, pension papers to check, garden to sort out an excellent motivator. I do hope that one day Heseltine and Farage meet by accident at LBC, Van Helsing and Dracula would have nothing on it.

The trouble is I would have lost Mr Motivator, who else could annoy me as well? Probably most of the remain establishment TBH. The demise of CUK has meant we have heard much less of Ms Soubrie, a good thing on balance.

Have you noticed that one benefit of our current PM has been a decrease in the number of patronising article stating that women make better senior manager and that if the FTSE 100 were managed by females all would be sweetness and light? Funny we have had two female Prime ministers, the first was a significant world force, had her faults to be true, but is still, after her death a force in politics. The second has been a disaster. Neither of them fitted the women make better managers model that has been trotted out as nauseam since 2008. The real problem is that the current business model rewards selfish and immoral behaviour and that needs to be addressed.

DiscoveredJoys said...

@Rapscallion

Brexit Derangement Symptom, Trump Derangement Symptom, Farage Derangement Symptom. Arguably the response to Corbyn 'Marxist' politics has resulted in a similar response - a Corbyn Derangement Symptom.

I sense a theme! All those people who have valued their prejudices (sorry, values) leading the political consensus for the last 40 years or so rendered incapable of rational response to a challenge in that order. The New World Order now in danger of becoming the Old World Order. It shakes the foundations of their world, self respect, and social status.

Oh dear, how sad, nevermind.

Pat said...

The polls will be volatile for some time.
Up to now those who disliked Labour had to vote Conservative and vice versa. The last GE was an UNpopularity contest that Corbyn narrowly won. Now there appear to be viable options,but it will take some time for the public to make up their.minds.

Sobers said...

I have a feeling that if the BP won an election it would precipitate a democratic crisis in the UK, because the I suspect the usual suspects, which includes the senior Civil Service, the media, local government etc etc would refuse to accept the decision of the electorate, and refuse to inplement the decisions of a Farage led government. It would be the Deep State Establishment's reaction to Brexit on steroids - regardless of the vote, they just wouldn't accept it. And given they have control of all the practical elements of government, they could thwart anything that a BP majority might vote for in Parliament.

If the BP are ever in the position of looking like they could potentially form the next government they will need to give a huge amount of thought to this problem and how they would counter it. They cannot just think that winning an election is enough to get them power, that will have to be wrested from those who currently hold it with no democratic control at all.

Dave_G said...


I can't see the NWO plans being upset so easily. The establishment/system is far too ingrained to simply 'give up' - witness the problems Trump still has countering the Deep State and the neo-warmongers still entrenched.

The scene is set for a major upheaval, true, but that upheaval could equally be a shift in a direction no-one is looking..... but one that puts massive obstacles in the path of populists/ism.

Anyone care to speculate on the 'false flag' that seems almost inevitable as a consequence of the serfs rising up to regain their hard-earned rights? Not just here but across Europe/the World.

Maybe not even a false flag but something more direct - Kennedy wasn't removed by accident.

As much as this speculation is tin foil hat territory we have to acknowledge that the NWO/Globalists are complicit in many events that have changed the course of history and we are on the cusp of such right now.

Dave_G said...


@Sobers - good point. Although there is no real 'skill' in running local or even Central Government the simple example of a few dismissals (and there would be plenty of people prepared to take over the reins and at (probably) much lower wages too!) would concentrate minds.

TBH there would probably be a lot of Government insiders happy to see their incompetent/over paid 'leaders' thrown out and replaced by something less corrupt. The idea that ALL of local/national Government would object to TBP running affairs seems somewhat remote under such circumstance.

Sobers said...

"TBH there would probably be a lot of Government insiders happy to see their incompetent/over paid 'leaders' thrown out and replaced by something less corrupt. The idea that ALL of local/national Government would object to TBP running affairs seems somewhat remote under such circumstance."

How many of the employees of the State do you think would vote for the BP? Especially the management, down to the level of of say a head teacher, GP or hospital manger? My guess is that the vast majority (80%+) would be fundamentally opposed to the BP, and would use all their powers to thwart them at every turn. And given that those tasked with disciplining such activities would also be anti-BP minded, there would be no comeback on such activity. We see it today with certain headteachers allowing children to skip school and go on eco-protests, if they allowed such behaviour for other non-PC type activities then the educational establishment would be down on them immediately, but because eco-loonery is favoured by those in charge, such heads are left alone. You could copy that across the entire State sector.

The Left's domination of State sector employment, especially at the control levels would allow them to operate a parallel government that Parliament could only control if it knows what its getting into and has plans ready to deal with it. And the trouble is the steps needed to take that control would be seen (and indeed painted by the usual suspects) as the rise of the 5th Reich.

The only good news is that Farage knows Trump, and if anyone can give first hand advice on what to do when you win an election as a non Leftist Establishment candidate, he can in spades. I hope Farage is taking notes and realises a victory at the ballot box is just the beginning of the war, the hard yards come after.

Smoking Scot said...

We shan't have long to see with Peterborough.

IF the Brexit candidate does win by any credible margin then yes it does become serious.

Voters are put off voting with their gut in part because FPTP is weighted against new party's. However it's a whole different ball of wax when they know their views are shared by a large section of the public.

Meaning every single by-election during the life of this parliament will represent a threat.

On the other hand if this seat changes from Labour to Brexit, it may make life fractionally less stressful for the next PM, should a no deal be his - her decision.

Cheerful Edward said...

Yes, it's interesting.

However, it takes no account of self-gerrymandering, that is, the dense concentration of Farage thraldom in areas of endemic academic failure.

Raedwald said...

Edward, you can't be so dense as to suggest that Opinum only polled folk with fewer than 2 GCSEs? No? Perhaps not even you could be that stupid. So you're responding instead to the Peterborough issue - by suggesting that the voters of Peterborough are all stupid, and therefore liable to vote TBP? Is that the Labour Party's central campaign strategy? Insulting the voters?

Utterly pathetic.

Cheerful Edward said...

My personal view is that many of the electorate have been treated with kid gloves, rather than having the lamentable truth about themselves stuck to them properly.

Whatever the various parties are called, the progressives add up to about 55% and the reactionaries plus ultra-reactionaries to about 45%

Stephen J said...

Cheese, I echo Raedwald's response above and would raise him an "academe is not the be all and end all", since that is clearly true.

Whilst some of the world's most disastrous leaders have been very well educated, most of the best are original thinkers who rarely achieved much education. Getting on with life for someone who is determined, easily trumps a lazy three years at uni. That three years can mean the difference between a successful life and one of whingeing and muttering about the fairness of it all. Or worse, being deliberately disruptive in order to force societal breakdown, as in cultural marxism.

Whilst high levels of education amongst ever more of the population might be good for uniform thought amongst that cohort, all this means is that you are easily governed/controlled. It most certainly does not encourage creativity which cannot be taught and the result of which represents originality, particularly when, as in recent times universities have been engaging in "noplatforming" in order to stifle anything that might approach originality or provoke thought.

Anonymous said...

"Whatever the various parties are called, the progressives add up to about 55% and the reactionaries plus ultra-reactionaries to about 45%"

Farage is the leader of the progressives; the reactionaries are those who want everything to go on in the same comfortable soft socialist way that it has since Blair came to power. Especially those who get a fat income from the taxpayers, such as university vice-chancellors.

However, I don't think universities are uniformly bad. Most contain large numbers of people studying science, engineering, computer programming, games design and so on -- courses on which politics is never mentioned.

It's true that you can't teach creativity in the sense of standing up in front of a class of students and telling them how to be creative and original, but you can encourage it by giving good marks for original work and by setting projects that demand thought rather than just downloading chunks of the world-wide web.

However, there's a lot to be said for leaving school at 16.

Don Cox

Tim W said...

You are worrying about the wrong part of London.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/05/31/the-european-banking-authority-leaves-london/#34f6f0a01715

Span Ows said...

@Sobers 11.00, yes indeed. The New Labour staybehind army fill most positions and have been strengthened by coalition weeds and fake conservative wimps. A real deep clean is necessary

The bonfire of the quangoes didn't (and couldn't) happen because that would mean government actually doing all that stuff again!

Unfortunately the whole system must come to a stop do do a real de-greasing of the machinery. That is almost (but not entirely) impossible.

@Dave_G 11:01, you can bet the NWO have a plan B C and D depending on what happens. They were probably ready for Brexit 3 years ago but have been deflected from that moving ahead with that plan B by the real possibility that they could actually stop it and keep plan A.

Span Ows said...

@Tim 17:31, yep read to the end and we see a massive silver lining starting to take shape.

decnine said...

"The bonfire of the quangoes didn't (and couldn't) happen because that would mean government actually doing all that stuff again!"

It didn't happen because that would mean government actually being visibly responsible for all that stuff again. Quangocracy is a great way to ensure that nobody (or at least nobody important) need ever be responsible for foul ups.

Raedwald said...

Surely the point is that unless you're a central Statist, the government shouldn't be doing that stuff at all? Follow the principle of devolving necessary functions down to the lowest poaaible level in order to maximise democratic control - Localism - and there would be no need for either quangos or in-house central Statism.

Remember, 96% of taxes are determined centrally - the real cost of functions that can ONLY be done by a central State, such as defence, air traffic control, diplomacy, the currency and so on - is only somewhere between 30% - 40%. There is no reason why everything else cannot be devolved.

Ed P said...

With the rise of the Brexit Party, Labour & Tories alike suddenly may find the FPTP system is no longer their friend. Funny how electoral reform was uninteresting to them before...

Dave_G said...


Ed - won't work for them no matter how it's arranged! Even on a PR-basis I think 17.4m votes would still put Farage in #10!!

The existing 2.5-party system is definitely finished - I just worry about the damage they'll inflict on their way out and whether or not they can make 'permanent' changes before they go?