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Wednesday, 9 October 2019

A black swan moment for Brexit

Well, twenty-four hours really is a long time in politics. The surprise is not that the EU has demanded Northern Ireland as the price for Brexit but that the gloves are now off and that Number Ten has made it public. I suspect strongly that Mrs Merkel said exactly the same thing to Mrs May, which explains much of the draft Selmayr-Robbins treaty (Selmayr himself said explicitly that losing the six counties was the price Britain would have to pay for leaving). Mrs May did not of course tell us that this was the EU's position - and I wonder whether she mentioned it to the Queen during her regular weekly briefings.

That Downing Street made the demand public - a demand that could not be denied by the Bundeskanzlerei, as the conversation was undoubtedly recorded - marks the real political change. Mrs May aimed for an agreement that the EU would find acceptable; Boris is looking for an outcome that the citizens of the UK find acceptable. That is an enormous difference in approach. 

I've no doubt that some fatuous idiot will pop up and opine that as NI voted 'remain' this is reason enough for the EU to insist on sovereignty over the province. Asinine. Demography in Northern Ireland may mean that at some time, maybe in five years, maybe in twenty-five, that there will be a majority in the Province to join with the republic of Ireland. This is wholly a matter for the people of Northern Ireland, wholly a matter for a referendum for only that purpose. That decision has not yet been made. 

Well, I cannot take pleasure in being correct when I doubted that the Prime Minister's deal would get the three green ticks it needed, but yesterday's events have brought us to a point that is hardly unexpected - a clean Brexit. It also leaves remainers in the position of advocating the loss of Northern Ireland as the price they would pay for a deal with the EU. Not a position, I suspect, that will be popular with voters. 


DeeDee99 said...

A German Chancellor trying to extend Germany's territory ..... it's what they do.

Raedwald said...

JPM - your morning comments are assuming a pattern of nastiness and personal abuse that adds little to the discussion. You're more than welcome to post later in the day when your meds have kicked in and you are relatively civilised.

DiscoveredJoys said...

I read JPM's comment before it was excised. I've no criticism of that action.

However if JPM is an example of an engaged Remainer (rather than being a contrary troll, just for the sake of the shits and giggles) then the country should brace itself for an outbreak of nastiness and abuse as we get closer and closer to 31 October.

The gloves are off, the EU have not been negotiating in good faith (not a surprise to many), and we are better off out.

Mark said...


I read it too and I have suspected for a while that Cheerful is actually a fair representation of a small but significant portion of remain opinion.

It's the irrational rage - no amount of faux condescension and "sophistication" can hide it - that is striking.

These vicious, hate driven individuals are not going to just shrug and say "ah well" in the event of no deal.

Trolls no doubt will just carry on trolling but if the last three years has shown anything, it's how many of these people there are in positions to disrupt and damage. I don't doubt for one second they will try.

Cheese and Ham-it-up Troll. said...

Would be very surprised if Cheesy wasn’t funded by one of the Remain groups. To attempt to influence “ far right” blogs. To spread the message of remoan.
If that fails. Incite hatred and violent language and imagery in opponents. Then report the blog to the cyber police to get it shut down.

Gordon Brown’s spinners had the rapid rebuttal unit. That flooded the message boards each time the Great Helmsman made a Clunking Fist of something. Which was very often.

The day Gordon was dragged from number ten, all those suspected Labour Party, paid for accounts, disappeared.

They were like Cheesy. The good ones. The ones pretending to engage.

Remoan has plenty of money. More than they know what to do with. The elite are very rich.
They can afford plenty of cheesy types.

Smoking Scot said...

I once suggested to a blogger that letting a troll post, especially a person with a deep paranoia, deserved some thought and consideration on the blogger's part.

I only read the comments window after I've read the article, then hide all the troll comments. However if there is a serious mental health issue going on here, then maybe Raedwald might consider if he's assisting in making matters worse.

Your blog Raedwald, your rules, but freedom of speech doesn't mean aiding a mental health issue IMO.

JPM said...

Germany is doing no more than exercising its power of veto. That does not make it the ruler of the European Union.

Now, make up your minds.

Do you think that member states should have a power of veto in some areas or not?

One of your chief complaints was that the UK's such ability was too restricted, yet that Germany's is too great, apparently, whereas they are in fact both exactly the same, along with Malta and Liechtenstein.

Anonymous said...


I have to repeat - I have never voted for an EU parliament, or any of its institutions
or presidents. None of it.
Its treaties and laws have been imposed above my head - and you give me a bloody 'veto'.

Well, thanks for that - a 'veto'. WOW !

Sobers said...

"One of your chief complaints was that the UK's such ability was too restricted, yet that Germany's is too great, apparently, whereas they are in fact both exactly the same, along with Malta and Liechtenstein."

Yes as we all know the rules are imposed totally equally, like when Germany and France breached the Spending Limits and were punished with EU gauleiters sent in to run their affairs.......oh yes my mistake that never happened unlike in Greece and Italy etc etc.

Face it, the EU is no more a rule based system than the average family is - its rule based until what the children want differs from what the parents want, and then its 'Because I say so'. Germany and France run the EU for their own benefit, and nothing gets done that they don't agree to, regardless of rules.

Anonymous said...

It's amazing that people honestly think that Germany doesn't run the EU. We only hear from Merkel never from the PM of, for example Denmark or Portugal, regarding Brexit.
It's a German empire that is crumbling and Merkel knows it.

rapscallion said...

JPM @ 09:43

Absolute bollocks on stilts. Germany, through the auspices of the EUSSR is basically going for annexation of Northern Ireland, and let's be fair here they have some considerable experience in this area. Does Austria, Sudetenland and the rest of Czechoslovakia ring any bells Cheesy.

Which part of aggressively interfering in the domestic politics of a foreign nation are you struggling to come to terms with?

If you think that Malta and Liechtenstein have the same "weight" as Germany then you are, as we all suspect, seriously deluded.

Smoking Scot is right - you need to seek medical help for your mental health issue(s)

Mark said...


Controlling the Euro makes Germany the ruler of the EU which is its de factor economic empire. We've pointed this out more than once previously.

It is the threat of economic "sanctions" (don't be anal about that particular word, you know what is meant) that has been used to keep the recalcitrant provinces in line.

If you couldn't spend a penny without my say so, you'd be my bitch, end of. It's the same in the Eurozone. We've also explained - more than once - why this whole flawed construct is doomed but you aren't interested.

I couldn't give a rat's arse what powers of veto countries trapped in the EU have. Irrelevant diversion.

So which areas of veto would you want prime minister Faragec ercising under Trump's instruction then?

Dave_G said...

If it is true that Merkel said (and I paraphrase) "if Germany wanted to leave the EU it wouldn't be a problem..." it shows precisely who controls it and their attitude to those that want to leave (or even veto something - isn't wanting to leave a 'veto' then?).

But perhaps Cheesy could answer the question - what type of EU will we be 'remaining' in if we stay? Three years (+) is a long time in EU policy-making and its future path could (has?) change vastly since we voted to leave. Even the Lisbon Treaty is something most of the general public are being kept ignorant of (MSM-wise) as our 'future' within that construct.

Why are the public not told of the EU we would be staying IN?
Why are the public not told of the EU economic, political and social changes currently under way?
Why are the public being KEPT FROM THE TRUTH?

In a way I hope the Remainers actually DO try to start something if we leave - they are seriously deluded if they think they can make a difference or that the Leave side won't actually take offence at their actions and retaliate accordingly - the Remainers are in for a VERY nasty shock.

John Brown said...

Dave_G @ 10:33 is absolutely correct in saying that even today the truth about the effects of the Lisbon Treaty are being kept from the public, as indeed are many of the totally unacceptable effects of the proposed WA that Mrs. May wanted us to sign.

Such is the power of the BBC, Sky etc. that the actual T&C’s of the Lisbon Treaty and the WA are never discussed.

QMV in the hands of the budget recipients is a recipe for trouble and we’ll be looking at further unplannable immigration from additional eastern European countries as the EU continues its policy of expansion (“Atlantic to the Urals” said Mr. Cameron in Kazakhstan July 2013).

I think Mrs. Merkel’s/the EU’s price for exit being the unacceptable annexation of N.I. is another demonstration that the EU are not negotiating in good faith and hence the government should be taking the EU to an international court for not complying with Article 50 paragraph 2 so that the whole world can hear and learn the truth.

Anonymous said...

Make that two Black Swans.

Guido Fawkes @ 9:00 am this morning:

'Ireland announced what is being called a ‘Boris budget’ yesterday, as Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe delivered his budget on the basis of a No Deal Brexit scenario. Donohoe told the Today Programme this morning that the decision to do so was made “a number of weeks ago”, evidently before Boris’ New Deal was proposed. This will not quell noises from London that Brussels and Dublin are not acting in good faith towards UK proposals..'

Junker did say "there will be punishments".


Mr Ecks said...

BoJo needs to use emerg powers to stop the House of Remainiac traitors staging their EU takeover. VONC--install some POS--then vote down a GE on 2nd VONC vote. Then 2 years importing voters and giving every goboon over 14 the vote. No more Brexit--no more UK. EU takeover.

Boris needs to stop that by ANY means.

If he can get past the next 3 weeks then we win--simple as that.

Close the HoTreason and the entire courts system if needed. Plenty--myself included will turn out to deal with any remainiacs who fancy some unrest.

Be clear--if the EU wins our future is rule by decree.

Oldrightie said...

The now public sell out of Northern Ireland agreed covertly by Mad May and Co. is and will be ever the desire of the EUSSR to isolate England and subsume NI, Scotland and Wales. Thereafter use that success to subjugate and cower the English.

These machinations existed until the United Kingdom evolved via huge bloodshed and strife. Need I say more? EU army of Scottish and Welsh recruits heavily armed and funded from Berlin next, maybe? Our own troops shackled by May's sell out surrender deals? Scary.

Dave_G said...

@Oldrightie - no wonder then that we see mass demonstrations for Scottish Independence this last weekend....

I'd love to know what kind of 'deal' Sturgeon has in mind to make Scottish Independence work...... England being their largest market for exports and all that.....

In the (unusual) event of a Scottish 'leave' vote winning I might need to pick JPMs brains on how to be an antagonistic tw@t in how to refuse acceptance of a 'legitimate' vote to leave.

Mark said...

Surely we'll need 10000 more as they won't be able to plunder our waters after Halloween?

Anonymous said...

Replying to Anonymous at 10:18 who only reads about German and French politicians. That's a function of the UK press.

You can easily check English-language news in Ireland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia etc. for their views on Brexit. It needs a bit of desire and an element of curiosity. Australian and Japanese sites are pretty good.

Turning to Denmark, one of their politician's Brexit observations goes as follows: "There are small countries and there are countries that haven't yet realized that they are small".

This is what the English are now coming to understand.

Obligato said...

Liechtenstein is not a member of the EU.

Mark said...

So why are the frogs so worried about a "Singapore" next door then?

How small would we be inside the EU?

"The English". That tells us all we need to know about your bigotry and bias.

Raedwald said...

Anon 15:47 You're a Troll. Go back to Twitter.

Anonymous said...

If we are that small a country then the EU won't miss us then will they? Why are they trying so hard to keep us in with the help of numerous traitors?
I'm happy to be living in a small country. As long as we are independent.

Cascadian said...

Offered only slightly tongue-in-cheek.

Lets give everybody what they want-no more yUK, a failed union. Independence for Northern Ireland, Jockistan and Wails. Lets be generous and also offer free repatriation of any Liverpool resident who desires it, to Eire. An independent England free of the ungrateful. Each independent country will be free to negotiate their own trade deals, impose (or not) borders and fund their own pet projects from their own pockets. England flourishes without the deadwood.

Only the Royal family will be slightly miffed, too bad so sad, they can find solace counting the money from wind-farm licences.

Doonhamer said...

The Scots are not unanimously in favour of the EU or of Scottish independence.
Nor are they True Believers in Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Just because the SNP, only ever represented by Wee Jimmy and her sock puppet in Westminster, make a lot of noise is like believing that a rabble in London represent the majority of UK.And
As a United kingdom we are strong. Once fission starts who knows where it will lead. Independent Northern Isles, Cornwall, Real Yorkshire, Home Counties - tired of supporting the fringes?

Anonymous said...

@Mark said

It is more a case of England coming to terms with 'small country' status. N. Ireland, Scotland and Wales have trodden this path for many a year.

Note also that English immigrants swung the Leave vote in Wales (22 Sep article in The Times citing work of Prof Danny Dorling - behind paywall).

Meanwhile, in Scotland, the police are warning locals to be aware of English newcomers -