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Friday, 11 October 2019

The EU army's theatre of operations ...

It's a slow day so let's have a bit of fun. Let's presume there is a future shake-out of military alliances, with the EU choosing to go its own way, after having admitted Ukraine. Let's presume also that the neutral countries stay neutral, and that the UK, Norway and Iceland remain in NATO. Turkey? Well, not in NATO, clearly. And unlikely to have been admitted to EU membership. Which would lead Turkey to look to Russia for an alliance.

Now the military types amongst you will appreciate the position better than I, but if I were the EU, I think I'd want very much to have Turkey on my side rather than Russia's. With a population of 82m, 12m of which are men of prime military age and not soft and woke like EU youth, what's the bet that the EU will go-a-courting again? If they have to defend three fronts, will that cost them more or less than the 2% they're supposed to spend on NATO?

NATO blue, Russia red

NATO blue, EU green, Russia red


Ed P said...

I note you've partitioned Ukraine (with one of those straight line borders so loved by armchair politicians and so hated by the people affected).

The EU entirely out of NATO? It's quite likely if Trump wins a 2nd term and "offers" NATO members a choice: pay 2% or leave.

And please add some yellow on the map for Cheesy please!

Raedwald said...

I also see I've missed the Estonian islands and Rhodes - which should be green.

Point taken about straight lines- but having taken Crimea, I doubt Russia would accept a settlement that didn't include a chunk of the Donbas, so purely conjectural.

According to Cheesy, who it seems relies on Peter Hitchens for his foreign policy, the EU wouldn't need an army anyway as Russia is a cuddly bunny just yearning for love.

Dave_G said...

Not sure about the Cheesy connection but I personally don't consider Russia 'the enemy' in any way shape or form at all. If anything they are an opportunity completely missed due to all sorts of fabricated evidence against them - much as other issues suffer from 'fake alarmism'.

Sure, they are protective, to the point of possessive but they hardly do so to the detriment of their population who, by all accounts, have prospered under Putin. Would that we had someone so switched on and working for 'us'.

Yes, Russia has its problems but as for being an 'enemy'.....??? Only those that seek to use the 'enemy' status as a means to further their own political/military aims would make the claim. This is Russia - not the USSR (which has now morphed into the EUSSR).

Our 'enemy' is far, far closer than the Russian border.

Raedwald said...

No, not an enemy - and in N -v- S terms, a potential ally. But not a friend, either. And currently in a military alliance with China. So a threat.

JPM said...

A "slow" day, is it Raedwald?


In your recent enthusiasm for polls, don't you also want to discuss that one over the pond, which is so enlivening folks just now?

APL said...
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APL said...

Dave_G: "If anything they are an opportunity completely missed due to all sorts of fabricated evidence against them"

Agreed. But the warriors around this 'ere manor, are still re-enacting their yout. So yer' won't get much traction with that tack.

Raedwald: ".. and currently in an alliance with China.. "

Who else?? The US Deep state, allied with their Allies in the UK deep state, have over the last three years made any sort of raprochment impossible.

APL said...
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APL said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

With Brexit negotiations entering the "tunnel" phase, the Brexit brigade will no doubt be going full-on "Wooden Horse".

Doonhamer said...

Will it all be about internal security,with service personnel stationed in "foriegn" states?

Smoking Scot said...

Yours of 17.01. Russia is in a far larger military alliance than just with China.

That SCO can field 128,000 troops just to practice.

Mark said...

A military, a proper military costs money.

The wannabe imperialist ain't got any and will have even less (I.e. none) when target 2 goes south (no pun intended).

Russia sees the Ukraine as vital to its security. The boche would be VERY unwise to push the bear too far here. The last time they tried Berlin ended up a heap of smouldering rubble.

Dave_G said...

Military alliance with China?...... so, what else would we expect them to do faced with universal (global) derision, mainly media but certainly .gov manufactured?

I find it hard to blame Russia for its choices but they don't need to be 'friends' - all they need is the opportunity to trade and associate on a level playing field.

Russia as a 'threat' has been manufactured/forced upon them and given that they stand little chance (some say) against a massed NATO plus being faced with an aggressive USA lining their borders with offensive (although claimed to be defensive) missiles you can hardly blame them for seeking mutual support from China.