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Tuesday, 27 November 2018

May unlikely to survive Commons defeat

The Prime Minister's appearance in parliament yesterday confirmed as nothing else could that the Robbins Treaty will not get through a Commons vote on 11th December. From every side of the house, in refined parliamentary voices, our MPs said "Pish! We don't believe you" as Mrs May struggled to repeat in slightly different ways the same six lies on which she's depended since giving up on "No deal is better than a bad deal". This itself has gone the same way as "Strong and Stable" and others of Theresa's trite little maxims. She is set to tour the country for the next two weeks repeating those same six lies ad nauseum to anyone holding a microphone, and her supporters and Brandon Lewis' office have been sent off to conquer social media. I suspect they've all been instructed to publish six tweets in support of their doomed leader, but judging by their output, their hearts are not in it. 

Conservative MPs have a finely tuned sense of survival, and by last night they had begun to realise that the game was up. Mrs May is unlikely to survive her coming Commons defeat on 11th December, and her supporters know it. Brandon Lewis, who will fall with Mrs May, has nothing to lose, but others including I suspect James Cleverly, just last week the most prominent of Mrs May's social media warriors, has suddenly gone very quiet. Other MPs have practised for eating-up their Christmas sprouts; some who can't quite bring themselves to repeat Mrs May's six lies have just done their homework by re-tweeting those that can. "What he said". Then running away with proof for the Whips. 

Before that 'meaningful vote' on 11th December we have five days of Commons debate on the Robbins Treaty. The Lords have no vote, but the Commons will consider their views on the 12th. Then those protracted and complex amendments from earlier in the year kick in.  As the Commons Library advises
a Minister of the Crown would be obliged to make a statement under s. 13(4) European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 no later than 21 calendar days thereafter. The Government then has seven sitting days within which to move motions in both Houses on the statement.
The House is due to rise for Christmas on the 20th, returning on 7th January. The Chief Whip already has his timetable sketched out; 

After Christmas things are equally tight. As the guide advises;
If, on 21 January 2019, no political agreement has been reached regarding the Withdrawal Agreement and/or the framework on the future relationship, a Minister of the Crown must make a written statement within five calendar days, as per s. 13(11) European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018.

This means a written statement as to the Government’s intentions must be made by Saturday 26 January at the very latest.

The motion must then be moved within a further five sitting days, meaning Parliament would be asked to debate the Government’s intended course of action no later than Monday 4 February.
Now two matters which are being trailled in the press. The first is the extent of the government's defeat, punted by those who believe that it is possible to be a little bit pregnant. If the majority against May is not over 100, they say, it's an invitation for her to ask the House to vote a second time, after she's made a purely cosmetic visit to Brussels to record some encouraging noises, but no actual changes to the WA, from the Commission. 

The second is what is being billed as the TARP option; between the first and second votes, Hammond and Carney will co-ordinate a crash in Sterling and UK stocks, thus scaring MPs into agreeing the Robbins Treaty in the same way that US Congressmen were frightened into passing TARP on the second go. 

I think both are unlikely. I think by the 12th, the Conservative Party will be looking for a new Leader - the May government will effectively have fallen. The question is whom will Her Majesty invite to form the next government - for Ministers are needed to get those key Brexit actions through.



DeeDee99 said...

The planned "manufactured crash" by Remainers Hammond and Carney has been widely disseminated by social media. It's already factored into the narrative.

The sight of our own "Conservative" Government DELIBERATELY crashing the economy in order to force through a Treaty that transfers MORE power to the EU when we have voted to LEAVE should be enough to see the Party consigned to the dustbin of history.

Jack the dog said...

Quite so Dee dee99, it is of a piece with their disgusting scurrilous decietful and treacherous conduct to date and so everybody believes it, so even if it were to happen accidentally in the unlikely event of it being a genuine fallout from the likely turbulence, everybody will think it is manufactured and tyhey'll just hate the tories even more.

May's lying and incompetence has finished the tories in their current form as a rather incompetent managerialist alternative to Labour. Time to reinvent themselves as a libertarian free market party party? I wouldn't hold my breath but there is an opening in the market for a party which is on the side of the working family as opposed to the city and the CBI.

It should be labour but they've sold their soul to the momentum cultural marxist scum and racist identitarians.

I guess we'll see

Stephen J said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Stephen J said...

Two very good comments above.

I was going to suggest that following an engineered trashing of the £, it might well be a convenient moment to ask for the urgent assistance of the ECB and pass an emergency act. Perhaps in an affectionate nod to the "Federal Reserve Act" which was foisted on the Americans on 23rd December 1913, we could have an ECB Act passed by way of emergency, in which we adopt the € and are absorbed into the United States of Europe under a single currency.

This being why Oily Robbins has been so quiet while May touts her personal and party entrails around the country and before the Commons, which can finally be closed and turned into a museum.

Following this, there won't be any further need for a CONservative party, the EU will have ALL of our money and the city, the banks already have the ECB and the Federal Reserve...

In short, they will have cleaned up and done it right under our noses.

But then I always was a fantasist....

Anonymous said...

Opposition will be bought off with bribes, Knighthoods and sinecure jobs.
Faux dissent until we are irreversibly chained to the 4th Reich.
May’s duplicity would make Neville Chamberlain blush.

jack ketch said...

Like Anon above, I too think that May will get it through the house; the Tory Brexiteers with their plastic patriotism have already shown they have no real stomach for a fight -all 'mouth and no trousers' as Granny Dwarf would have said and the DUP will be brought (or 'bought') to heel.
And should it really look like the government will be defeated then May will find some way around either having or 'obeying' the 'Meaningful vote'.

Rossa said...

Anon 08:32

Chamberlain also came back waving an ‘agreeement’ in the air and look how that turned out. History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. Even if she gets her ‘deal’ through Parliament, it won’t be the end of the matter. Brexit is a process not an event. Four months is a very long time in politics.

Trump is sticking his oar in, saying no trade deal with U.K. if this goes through. Not that I expect our Parliamentarians will take any notice, but if other countries also said no trade deal if this abomination goes through, the shifting sands under May’s feet may just tip things in our favour on 11th.

Jack the dog said...

Rossa - Chamberlain was many things but he wasn't a traitor.

May is.

Cascadian said...

And all this could be short-circuited, if concerned Brits wake up and move all their savings and investments out of yUK and Europe to avoid the threat of a manufactured crash then bail-ins of their savings.

A run on the banks would concentrate the minds of politicians (of all stripes) wonderfully. Politicians playing with fire deserve to get burned.

mikebravo said...

May travelling the country with her "message". Didn't she try that one at her snap election? I seem to remember it went down like a cup of cold sick and she was less popular after than before.

However I have no confidence that the bastards in the HoC will stop this pile od steaming crap. The have been complicit in giving away our country to Brussells for 45 years. I do not see that changing now.

The only way I see them rejecting it is if they can engineer it into a full remain.

DiscoveredJoys said...

I too suspect that May's media offensive will firmly associate her with The Deal that will fail the Commons vote. The media offensive will turn out to be her farewell tour. She may still not want to let go of power but she will be ousted by one means or another.

I wouldn't be surprised if a 'caretaker' leader was be selected to get us past Independence Day. Perhaps David Davis - who will prepare for an orderly Clean Brexit first and then prepare for a Canada + (or similar)... and we will still have £39 billion to sweeten the negotiations.

Anonymous said...

“You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!”
Oliver Cromwell.

Mark The Skint Sailor said...

The Financial dip in the economy is a given. To what extent is the question.
The thing is, any change of such magnitude is always seen as an opportunity so there will be much volatility in teh markets, that's just the way they work.

But such a drastic change is a good opportunity to offload some toxic debt left over from the 2008 crisis, which could make the markets wobble significantly after the initial shock, dpending on who gets lumbered with the toxic stuff. The savvy stockmarketeer will offload it abroad, but there is ample chance for naive traders to be lumbered with lead instad of gold.

Plus there's the Soros factor. He's tried to bankrupt the UK before during the ERM crisis, so he has form.

Finally we have a pro-Remain Bank of England, who may not be minded to help in a crisis.

mongoose said...

I think that even this PM should have worked out that the Brexit process whatever its outcome must bring with it sufficient political damage to kill its leader. So this is the defining and terminal event of TM's political career, and she should have known it. Alas, she appears not to have twigged.

The plan now being floated about a TV debate on 9th Dec is pretty transparent: rubbish Grandpa Jezza, quick rigged polling, "huge demand for People's Vote", suspend Article 50, revote with rigged question. End. The same as it ever was, the same as it ever was.

The only escape for TM is if Article 50 is fucked over. TM can then continue to ride the big red bus for another year or two. Has the pig Bercow perhaps been kept on life support just for this eventuality?

Dave_G said...

It might even end up as a good thing if .gov get their way. POPULISM is still on the rise and traitorous actions by mainstream parties can only give impetous to the sea-changes we need in politics - changes that could, even if the UK was sold down the river to the EU, make a reverse possible and give this country a Government that really did work for us. Maybe this betrayal will be the kick start of it all?

Either way public opinion of the current domestic political process is tainted beyond recovery and the next GE will be interesting to say the least.

Budgie said...

I sincerely hope that the DWA fails to get through Parliament. Unfortunately the Cabinet, with a few exceptions, backed Chequers, the father of the DWA. That's one reason the DWA will get through.

The second reason is the make up of the HoC. There are only about 100 Leave MPs, so about 550 Remains. The Remain MPs believe the twaddle about "cliff edges" and "crashing out". They will look at Mrs May's revolving-door Remain DWA, they will look at the "No deal" "catastrophe", and they will vote DWA.

The most likely outcome if the DWA does fail in the HoC is the second referendum. The EU will give her a 6 months extension of the Art50 process - it's in their interests, and the DWA "transition" is an extension anyway. And the question will likely be rigged (Revolving-door Remain or original Remain).

The establishment simply have too much invested to let this go. This is a dance of political death, but too many Leaves do not realise it. And the Remain dupes cannot see they are turkeys voting for Christmas. I put the odds at 3:2 for Mrs May succeeding.

Budgie said...

Mongoose, Sorry, I was writing when you commented: "... "huge demand for People's Vote", suspend Article 50, revote with rigged question. End. The same as it ever was, the same as it ever was."

jack ketch said...

The second reason is the make up of the HoC. There are only about 100 Leave MPs, so about 550 Remains. The Remain MPs believe the twaddle about "cliff edges" and "crashing out"

I think that's right, except I would add that the Remain MPs, whilst disliking the DWA almost as much as the Leavers (it contradicts the central tenet of Remainaism, ie 'rule makers not just rule takers') are not prepared to risk the 'cliff edge twaddle' NOT being twaddle. Leave tories will be frightened by the threat of a 2nd referendum/ a non-brexit/JC becoming PM, if the DWA doesn't pass so they will hold their noses and vote for it.

Mr Ecks said...

You are eating too much tripe Ketch. It is spilling back out of your gob.

Jizza has to get a GE soonest. And pissing off millions of those who came back to ZaNu in 2017 because of his lies about supporting a proper Brexit is not a good plan. Plus he keeps the Cow in to 2022 by which time his shower of shite may not even exist.

No matter how much bullshit Tory MPs spew they don't want the dole in Corbynland so they will be loath to have 20 plus million people mightily pissed off at them. As Radders says it is dawning on them how much rage and hate is gathering against them. And they now understand that their "leader" is a mental case They aren't going to kiss the arse of the ever shrinking ranks of remain traitors like you Ketch because you have fuckall to offer them.

mongoose said...

Dave_G said... It might even end up as a good thing if .gov get their way.

I have often thought that. Stay with the EU boat all the way to the rocks and sink the bastard properly. But it would need serious politicians to steer that. This lot aren't that clever.

Span Ows said...

Dare I say prepare yourselves for a Jo Cox moment, maximum effect would be during that week commencing 2nd Dec. TPTB play hardball.

Charles said...

Well the Chamberlain fudge gave time for re-armament, however if the Govt had been doing their duty the limited amount of arms to defeat Hitler would have been available. Incompetent governance goes hand in hand with betrayal and disaster.

We should all thank President Macron for his outburst about our fish, it shows to anyone who wants to see just how bad the deal is. Our friend Mr Trump has done his bit as well, funny when you compare them with their predecessors, who tried to bully us into remain.

My vote for leader would be David Davis in charge, Mogg in the treasury, Raab in charge of Brexit as at least he knows at first hand not to trust the civil service. I would have Boris as deputy PM and clear leader. Home Secretary currently is a non entity, leave him and foreign sec where they are. I would have to have someone with a brain at defence but cannot think of who, any ideas?

Span Ows said...

Johnny Mercer, Plymouth

Budgie said...

Jack Ketch said: "Remain MPs . . . are not prepared to risk the 'cliff edge twaddle' NOT being twaddle."

Perhaps as a Remain you could explain why the UK is unique among the other 163 nations on the planet not in the EU, that makes us unable to be independent?

Bill Quango MP said...

The question is whom will Her Majesty invite to form the next government -

One wouldn't want to stand for oneself, of course. Not for the prestige and power and free lunches that come with the job. Not for oneself.
But..if one were steady the unite the party..A compromise candidate..One might be forced to put aside one's personal wish for obscurity and to allow oneself to be thrust forward in the nation's hour of need, to rescue the situation....

...One might be tempted to assist one's colleagues in leading the nation.
One might even feel obliged by the privilege of one's office to serve Her Majesty in forming a government.
A Government of peace. And stability. Harmony, and temperance.
Seeking nothing more than smooth transition from EU to non-EU status.

if one were could hardly refuse such an opportunity...for bloody revenge.

jack ketch said...

Perhaps as a Remain you could explain why the UK is unique among the other 163 nations on the planet not in the EU, that makes us unable to be independent?

'Our own democratically elected politicians' would probably be the best answer to that.

jack ketch said...

A Government of peace. And stability. Harmony, and temperance.- Adam Sutler, perchance? Seriously, 'temperance'...warm milk before bedtime, Sally army and 'lips that touch liquor shall not touch ours' style 'temperance'?

Raedwald said...

Thanks Bill ... ;)))

Charles said...

Cull the Badgers said...

May won't resign after the defeat on 11th December. The Tories will probably not remove her, the spineless cowards they are. They will connive further at the trashing of our democracy and the surrender to globalism and the EU. Something will be cobbled together.

There is only one way to deal with this betrayal, there's nothing else for the people to do.

Peter MacFarlane said...

" Leave tories will be frightened by the threat of a 2nd referendum/ a non-brexit/JC becoming PM, if the DWA doesn't pass so they will hold their noses and vote for it."

I hate to say it, but Ketch is right again; this is what I think will happen.

God send that I am wrong.

Budgie said...

Jack Ketch said: "'Our own democratically elected politicians' would probably be the best answer to that.

Well, that answer is better than most Remain bluster about the UK's (so called) unique inability to be independent, but it still fails. Firstly our politicians have been elected under current conditions where Westminster is a provincial outpost of the EU empire - so we get MPs of the calibre of local councillors.

Secondly, in talking to people from non-EU countries such as India, USA and Australia, I was surprised to find they are quite as scathing about their politicians, and in the same way, as we are about ours. Thirdly, though we know our country is badly run, we do moderately well on international comparisons with either EU nations or non-EU nations.

The UK may be currently directed by such as the Rasputin-like Olly Robbins, the truly devious Theresa May, and the 1970s communist pair Corbyn and McDonnell, but there are a lot of ordinary people who just get on with their jobs with a competence comparable to any other nation.

But then that doesn't fit with your Salacious Crumb type persona.