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Thursday, 11 April 2019

Conservative Leadership Contest

Six months. Not enough time for RII unless it happens in October (which we would win again), but long enough to replace May.

She won't go until after May 2nd, around three weeks away, and I'm sorry for the decimation of sitting Conservative councillors that will occur, but go she must. Members haven't had the chance to elect a leader since 2005, and given the schism between the parliamentary and ordinary party means there will be many Red Tories who will want another Parliamentary stitch-up to prevent the over 70% Brexit grass-roots party from finally democratically electing our Leader. However, the new leader will welcome the delay of a full election - the process won't be complete in time for the EP elections on 23rd May, which is likely to see both UKIP and the Brexit Party take many of the existing 19 Conservative seats. Thus the inevitable EP wipeout will still be yet another May disaster without tainting her successor.

Usefully also, party members are beginning to realise that the truly dreadful Hague party constitution is in deep need of reform. It is a patrician stitch-up that institutionalises the power of the party grandees and reduces members to the level of dumb leaflet deliverers. A petition of members will need 10,000 signatures to start with just to change the 12-month rule - to twist May's arm if she digs her fingernails into the Number 10 door posts. Where do I sign?  


jack ketch said...

(which we would win again) -ThE SekreTT DiaRy Of Dave "PiigBoii' Cameron Aged 49 yrs, 4 m, & 10 daze

I would have hoped that wise men and wiser politicians (dichotomy much?) would have learnt not to make predictions about public polls. You , Raed, may think the numbers are in favour of leave-indeed they may well be HOWEVER if two nights before the Ref2 vote it is discovered that Bojo has been buggering underage 'Sex slaves' from the third world then....because that's the thing about public opinion, I wonder if the word 'fickle' shares an origin with the German word 'ficken'.

Also just this last week or so has shown that pretty much nothing trumps the Will Of Parliament (not even The Law because they make it ). If Parliament decides it wants to hold a Ref2 on the day of the EU Elections then it will. How fast can it get legislation passed when it wants? 2 days from first reading to Royal Assent?

mikebravo said...

Blimey Raedwald. You still have faith in the useless tories and party so called democracy?

Olly said...

Tory party rules protect May until Dec 31st, old chap.

Raedwald said...

Do keep up, Olly

There's a party petition underway to overturn the 12 month rule.
Plus her cabinet will force her out after 2nd May

She's finished.

Mark said...

Another six months?

For the Euro to rot and destroy more jobs outside of Germany. For the Euro debt crisis to fester. For "populist" movements in the EU to grow. For them to be diverted from these existential threats (is there actually a solution to the Euro?) I find it hard to believe that Tusk et al are genuinely as confident as they seem. I wonder if some of them are beginning to see us not as a milch cow, but as a trojan horse.

And here? Six more months to find some sort of stitch up. For May to get her "deal" - or some bastardised, cut down version of it - through parliament. A parliament increasingly at odds with the people. A parliament that clearly wants to surrender but hasn't really got a clue how, and has been trying itself in knots rejecting option after option.

And, of course, Tories and Labour have to get this stitch up done in such a way as to blame the other.

Another referendum? Is there time? I understand it took 9 months to properly organise the last one. And what would the question actually be. All the speculations I've seen (shoot me down in flames here by all means) don't seem to want "leave" as an option.

And if there are elections for the European "parliament", presumably labour and Tories will be standing. I'll be very interested indeed to see what their manifestos say. Won't this in effect be a referendum? (or at least a sounding board for any stitch up options)

If I was a remoaner I'm not sure I could draw any particular comfort from any of this.

Olly said...

Oh, I'm sure, Raedwald, as is the deselection by ukip-BNP-EDL entryists, to deselect the likes of Dominic Grieve.

So, a few thousand cranky signatories change the party leader, and that person ends up being imposed on the UK as unelected PM. No General Election, no vote in the House, nor even a transparent process within the Tory Party.

And yet you complain of the EU's being "undemocratic" where every senior official has to be approved by the Parliament and by the Councils.

Mark said...



Didn't the European "parliament" pass a resolution in December asking for his resignation given the "coup like" means by which he had been appointed?

jack ketch said...

If I was a remoaner I'm not sure I could draw any particular comfort from any of this.

I doubt many remainers took any comfort from last night's humiliation at the hands of the French beyond that fact that a wtf-brexit won't happen on Friday which is small solace but hand on heart, myself and a lot of remainers were hoping that maybe the 27 would say 'NON' and this whole clusterfuck might end...however badly. I doubt also that many remainers would take much comfort from anything these days, even from a revocation of Art.50. A moment's wild euphoria maybe but then the awful reality would hit home. And those remainers clammering for a 2nd plebiscide need their fucking heads examined IMO.

Val said...

Macron very nearly came to our rescue saying we had to leave Deal or no Deal by next month. Of course overruled by Merkel who sees Germany's economy being effected by Brexit. Always a smile while she sticks in the stiletto, May foolish enough to believe she is a friend.

Raedwald said...

Olly if you read this blog for long enough it will eventually penetrate your cerebellum that I consistently campaign for two things - Democracy and Localism. Whether that means changing a State captured by a Remainer patrician elite or a party captured by an unrepresentative globalist grandee elite.

You really can't beat universal suffrage and the secret ballot - a lesson the unelected, anti-democratic officials of the Berlaymont will also learn.

Mark said...

"Hoping that maybe the 27 would say NON"

Well I'm with you on that Jack.

jack ketch said...

On the subject of getting rid of May, this, to my mind interesting
'possibility' has just appeared on the wire:

Francis Elliott, the Times’ political editor, argues that with a new Queen’s speech due in the spring, May does face an existential threat.

Francis Elliott
There will be a lot of huff and puff about May's departure date today but as far as I can see she faces just one immediate existential threat - passing a Queen's Speech - and it's much closer than many realise

April 11, 2019
Here is an extract from his Times article (paywall).

The end of the parliamentary session also triggers a review of the Conservative government’s confidence and supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party, which was struck after the 2017 snap election in which the Tories lost their overall majority. The deal states that both parties are required to review its “aims, principles and implementation”.

The break clause was one reason why Mrs May decided to announce that the parliamentary session would last for two years, rather than the usual one year, in June 2017.

In the present climate, with the DUP implacably opposed to the Brexit deal as it stands, it is all but impossible to see the party issuing another guarantee to support a government led by Mrs May.

The ability to win a Commons vote approving a Queen’s Speech is a necessary condition for a viable government, but without a formal deal with the DUP Mrs May could not be certain it would pass.

Clarence said...

Look, if May said that she would make her daft deal subject to approval by the voters, then Labour, and the rest, would back it, no quibble.

However, the latest poll shows a ten-point Remain lead.

So this can mean only one thing. That is, the Tories want to drag the UK out of the EU, even if a firm majority of the public would now oppose that.

That point ain't going to be wasted.

jack ketch said...

However, the latest poll shows a ten-point Remain lead.
- Clarence

I'm sure it does and I'm also sure tomorrow there will be a poll showing exactly the opposite. One thing should by now be clear to both sides: No such poll is worth the downloading of it as a pdf. Even 'polls of polls' need to be taken with a truck load of salt.

Mark said...


Are you seriously suggesting that May and parliament are leavers?

So a leave parliament is defying a remain electorate by doing their damnest to keep us in?

Clarence said...

No, Mark, I'm saying that May, for reasons not fully clear, is apparently a hostage to a subset of Tories.

I surmise that what intelligence might know about her husband's activities should be at the top of the list of considerations - to be discounted, of course.

The facts are, that Parliament voted the way that it did on every option, whatever the persuasions of MPs.

anon 2 said...

Jack Ketch @ 1:46 p.m.

So glad you're reacting to the poll business!
Now all we need is a way to deal with the likelihood of ballot problem. The crooks are so busy encouraging us to believe in 'voting' - there MUST be something wrong with it.

Mark said...


You seriously think she's being held to ransom by Brexit supporting Tories?

Dave_G said...

Whatever happens re the Tory Party leadership it will come down to two endings:

1. the person will be 'manipulatable' (by some secret past or whatever)
2. the party membership will have no say in the matter

What we'll end up with is precisely what we've got now - a Parliament unable to enact the will of the people. Doesn't matter WHO leads or which party leads, the voters will be passed over and decisions made 'in our best interests'.

I can't see any way of avoiding this scenario other than a new party (with, essentially, the same leadership issues) or the public finally have enough and start a campaign of civil disobedience.

It worked for the Poll Tax. But nowadays it's far, far easier to bring essential services to a grinding halt.

As for Brexit - I reckon May will get her WA through on the basis of sheer exasperation and a HoC unable to get anything else done until this is settled. Attrition wins out.

jack ketch said...

start a campaign of civil disobedience.

It worked for the Poll Tax. But nowadays it's far, far easier to bring essential services to a grinding halt.
-Dave G

Bringing essential services to a halt, even by passive means, might very easily be classed as 'terrorism' these days. The best weapon in the anarchist's arsenal is Civil Ultra-Obedience/work-to-rule.Use their own laws, regulations and bureaucracy against them. For example: submitting thousands upon thousands of 'genuine''legitimate' FOI/SAR requests to every governmental body and especially those public bodies that aren't part of government per se.

Clarence said...

Dave, never mind that the party membership will have little say in the next leader - the PM, that is.

The towering point that you miss is that the electorate will have literally zero input, and not even our elected Parliament will have a say.

Now, about this "undemocratic" EU?

Dioclese said...

Let's stir it up a bit. Here's a petition from my mate...

Click this link to sign the petition:

My petition:

The Prime Minister must allow an further Vote of Confidence in her leadership

It is clear that since the Prime Minister survived a vote of no confidence by the Parliamentary party that she has acted in a high handed manner and broken the promises set out in her manifesto.

The Withdrawal Agreement has been overwhelmingly rejected three times by Parliament. This clearly demonstrates that the Prime Minister's strategy for Brexit does not enjoy the support of the majority either in the House of Commons or her own party. She must seek approval of her continued leadership and should this vote go against her, she should resign immediately